Pakistan Vs England - 3rd Test Preview

Sharjah  1 - 5th November 2015

Another excellent Test in this series ended on Monday with England unable to resist the Pakistan bowling line-up despite a heroic effort from Adil Rashid and Mark Wood, which saw the Pakistan price drift out from 1.04 to 1.8 before Zulfiqar found Wood's outside edge. The third and final contest looks set to be an interesting test, with both sides ringing the changes and England having to win to square the series. 

There have been seven Tests played at Sharjah, with one draw, and three of the six victories being by an innings. Notably, these innings victories was all by the visiting side, with Australia winning twice in 2002 and New Zealand winning last year having put on 690 in their first innings. Last years Test was noticeable for the volume of wickets taken by spinners, with Mark Craig picking up a ten-for in the match, and Yasir Shah taking four in New Zealand's innings. We can expect a similar pitch here, and so looking to spinners for top bowlers is probably a smart move. Yasir Shah can be backed at 2.75 for Pakistan, and Adil Rashid at 5s for England. Rashid can be dutched with Moeen Ali for 2.73, which seems to offer some value. 

As mentioned above, both sides will be changed from the last test, with Imran Kahn out for Pakistan and Azhar Ali likely to be available for selection. For the visitors, Mark Wood will be rested due to his persistent ankle problem, and Jos Buttler will also miss out. Cook was struggling with a slight injury in the last Test, but looks set to be fit here, but there is speculation over the inclusion of an out-of-form Ian Bell. England's batting line-up, then, is very difficult to predict. Moeen will play, but could be moved into the middle order to replace Buttler with Alex Hales coming in to open with Cook. Hales is touted as the likely opener for the upcoming South Africa tour, and so it would make sense to blood him here. Alternatively, we could see James Taylor, who has had an excellent season in all forms of the game, coming into the line-up somewhere in the middle order for Buttler. A third option would be to include Samit Patel to offer a third spin option, but I think this is unlikely bar any major injuries. 

Overall, England's batting line will see an inexperienced batsman being brought in, and given how fragile the middle order has been so far this tour I can't see this changing on what is likely to be the most difficult pitch of the series. With that in mind, Joe Root for England top bat at 3.75 offers some value. 

Looking at the Match Odds market, it looks like any pre-match value that was around has long since gone, with the draw drifting out from 3.3 to 3.8. Although I'll be looking got oppose this during the Test, both previous games have seen the draw trade much shorter, and could be a good back-to-lay play. Keeping Pakistan on side is definitely recommended, although if they trade very short during the first couple of days they might be a lay, as we've had three Tests in three weeks, and they are an old squad. England have impressed me so far this tour, and could have got close to winning both previous Tests, with light denying them the win in the first, and a shocking morning's batting costing them the second. All three results could happen here, and I won't be taking a position pre-match.

I will be tweeting anything I see as value during the match, so keep and eye on that, and good luck in the markets. 

Pakistan Vs England - 2nd Test Preview

Dubai 22-26th October 2015 

 After what developed into an excellent Test match between these two sides at Abu Dhabi, despite the lifeless pitch, we now move on to Dubai, where pitches have in the past proved to be much more lively. If not huge entertaining for the most part, the first Test has given an indication as to how the two sides will approach the series.

Pakistan, as brilliant as they can be, are also capable of some terrific batting collapses. Given that they had been in the field for two and a half days before their second innings, the subsequent capitulation could be forgiven, but is certainly worth noting from a trading point of view, particularly with Younis and Misbah both being the wrong side of 35. England were a big surprise for me, and I was impressed with their attitude in the first innings, particularly from Cook, applying themselves diligently to build a first innings lead. This is in stark contrast to the touring sides in the UAE last winter, both of whom struggled when batting second.

 With Pakistan set to welcome Yasir Shah back into their squad, I would expect him to provide the cutting edge that their bowling attack lacked in the previous Test, and a more helpful surface should provide their seamers with more to work with. This England batting line up have never faced a quality leg spinner, and so Shah should ask some serious questions of them. England, on the other hand, are set to be unchanged, with Ben Stokes back in training after an injury scare. Adil Rasheed's five-for in the second innings will boost his confidence after what was a bit of a flogging in the first, but he could struggle against a fresher Pakistan attack who will be less willing to throw their wickets away than they were on the fifth day in Abu Dhabi.

Overall then, we have two fairly evenly matched sides playing on a ground that has produced just two draws since 2010. In terms of taking a position before a ball is bowled, similarly to the first Test, a lay of the draw at 3.5 looks the pick of the Match Odds, with little value about Pakistan at 2.42 and England at 3.25. As with the last Test, we will hopefully see the draw trading a lot lower in play, and I will be looking to oppose at short prices as the Test progresses. The toss will be important here, as ever in the subcontinent, as the side batting first will have the best of the conditions both with the bat early on and with the ball in the fourth innings. With this in mind, backing Shoaib Malik at 5.5 for top Pakistan batsman should they win the toss looks nice. I liked the look of Imran Kahn with the ball as well, and if it starts to reverse I think he could cause some serious problems for the England batsman, so the 6s on him to be top Pakistan bowler looks good. A quick look at the England top batsman market, and Moeen Ali at 7.5 looks very generous from Paddy Power, as does the 6.5 on Ian Bell. Both are struggling for form slightly, but will not get a better chance to rectify that in batting friendly conditions, and both are excellent player of spin, which they will likely face plenty of.

 All in all, this Test should be excellent to trade, with both side capable of the sublime and the ridiculous, and conditions looking to provide more of a contest between bat and ball that previously, with this in mind I'll be looking to be active in the Match Odds market, and will try to tweet anything I see as value during the match.

Pakistan Vs England - 1st Test Preview

Abu Dhabi 14-19th October 2015

With Australia's tour of Bangladesh due to start last week cancelled due to security fears, the post-Ashes Test cricket drought comes to an end on Tuesday with the first day of England's visit to the UAE.

England come into this tour after an impressive Ashes victory, but in facing Pakistan in unfamiliar conditions face a very different challenge to that posed by Australia in England.

The hosts comprehensively beat a much better Australian side to the one England recently dispatched, and drew the three test series with New Zealand, losing just one test over the whole of their home series. This loss was the final test of the summer, and a very jaded Pakistan lost by an innings, having played five tests between the 22nd October and 26th November, and so fatigue was a big contribution to this performance. Incidentally, Brendan McCullum and Kane Williamson put on 297 for the second wicket in New Zealand's 690 in this test. The Pakistan squad named for the England series is much the same as for these tours, and so I expect Pakistan to be very strong. Their batting is exceptionally good in these conditions, as is their bowling; in Rahat Ali they have a wicket-taking new ball bowler, and Yasir Shah is one of the best legspinners in the world, and very much at home in the UAE, picking up 12 wickets for 17.25 against Australia.

As has generally been the case with England sides over the last two years or so, there is a big question mark over who will open the batting with Alastair Cook, with Moeen Ali looking to have made the cut, despite Trevor Bayliss' comment that it's "not ideal". This is hardly a vote of confidence in Moeen, and speaks volumes about the England coach's opinion of Alex Hales, particularly since neither of them got into double figures opening in the latest warm-up match. There are also selection issues around Jos Buttler's place in the side, as his Test batting form is poor, and Jonny Bairstow, his most likely replacement as wicket keeper, has been scoring runs for fun this season. Whatever the final XI, England's batting looks shaky to me, and I can see the unfamiliar conditions and Pakistan's quality spin bowling causing serious problems. England's spin bowling is a concern as well, with Adil Rasheed set to play his first test and Moeen likely to provide the second spin option. Rasheed is untested at this level, and if Pakistan are able to blunt him, Moeen is far from a specialist and unlikely, in my opinion, to trouble the Pakistan top order, one of the world's best batting units against spin.

In terms of betting, I can't look past Pakistan here. There is a huge trend for the home side winning tests at the moment, and an even bigger one for a result, and so this seems like the best play. Current prices on the machine are 2.32 to back Pakistan, 3.35 England and 3.6 the draw, and at these prices I'd be a bit wary of getting involved, as I think there will be much better opportunities during the match, especially if Pakistan win the toss and bat first. The two series last year showed just how quickly matches in the UAE can change direction, and a general trend was the draw traded very low in each of them before the visiting side lost wickets quickly, and ultimately capitulated. The ideal situation for me here would be for Pakistan to bat first and bat long, well into the second or even third day, for the draw to trade well below evens before England bat. If this occurs, I'll look to back Pakistan at the end of their innings, and also to be a big draw layer, scaling out liability as England lose wickets. Should England bat first, I can still see the draw getting short during the first innings, but think that it's much more likely in this situation, particularly if England bat past tea on day two. All in all, I really like Pakistan here, and will be looking to develop a position on them as the match develops. Keep an eye on twitter, as I will try to tweet when I think there's some value to be had.