Abu Dhabi 14-19th October 2015
With Australia's tour of Bangladesh due to start last week cancelled due to security fears, the post-Ashes Test cricket drought comes to an end on Tuesday with the first day of England's visit to the UAE.
England come into this tour after an impressive Ashes victory, but in facing Pakistan in unfamiliar conditions face a very different challenge to that posed by Australia in England.
The hosts comprehensively beat a much better Australian side to the one England recently dispatched, and drew the three test series with New Zealand, losing just one test over the whole of their home series. This loss was the final test of the summer, and a very jaded Pakistan lost by an innings, having played five tests between the 22nd October and 26th November, and so fatigue was a big contribution to this performance. Incidentally, Brendan McCullum and Kane Williamson put on 297 for the second wicket in New Zealand's 690 in this test. The Pakistan squad named for the England series is much the same as for these tours, and so I expect Pakistan to be very strong. Their batting is exceptionally good in these conditions, as is their bowling; in Rahat Ali they have a wicket-taking new ball bowler, and Yasir Shah is one of the best legspinners in the world, and very much at home in the UAE, picking up 12 wickets for 17.25 against Australia.
As has generally been the case with England sides over the last two years or so, there is a big question mark over who will open the batting with Alastair Cook, with Moeen Ali looking to have made the cut, despite Trevor Bayliss' comment that it's "not ideal". This is hardly a vote of confidence in Moeen, and speaks volumes about the England coach's opinion of Alex Hales, particularly since neither of them got into double figures opening in the latest warm-up match. There are also selection issues around Jos Buttler's place in the side, as his Test batting form is poor, and Jonny Bairstow, his most likely replacement as wicket keeper, has been scoring runs for fun this season. Whatever the final XI, England's batting looks shaky to me, and I can see the unfamiliar conditions and Pakistan's quality spin bowling causing serious problems. England's spin bowling is a concern as well, with Adil Rasheed set to play his first test and Moeen likely to provide the second spin option. Rasheed is untested at this level, and if Pakistan are able to blunt him, Moeen is far from a specialist and unlikely, in my opinion, to trouble the Pakistan top order, one of the world's best batting units against spin.
In terms of betting, I can't look past Pakistan here. There is a huge trend for the home side winning tests at the moment, and an even bigger one for a result, and so this seems like the best play. Current prices on the machine are 2.32 to back Pakistan, 3.35 England and 3.6 the draw, and at these prices I'd be a bit wary of getting involved, as I think there will be much better opportunities during the match, especially if Pakistan win the toss and bat first. The two series last year showed just how quickly matches in the UAE can change direction, and a general trend was the draw traded very low in each of them before the visiting side lost wickets quickly, and ultimately capitulated. The ideal situation for me here would be for Pakistan to bat first and bat long, well into the second or even third day, for the draw to trade well below evens before England bat. If this occurs, I'll look to back Pakistan at the end of their innings, and also to be a big draw layer, scaling out liability as England lose wickets. Should England bat first, I can still see the draw getting short during the first innings, but think that it's much more likely in this situation, particularly if England bat past tea on day two. All in all, I really like Pakistan here, and will be looking to develop a position on them as the match develops. Keep an eye on twitter, as I will try to tweet when I think there's some value to be had.
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