Trading T20 Games

With the T20 Blast Finals Day coming up on Saturday, I though I'd share how I approach trading T20 games, and give you an idea of how to use the stats on the ground that I've published on the blog.

Fail to Prepare, Prepare to Fail

Firstly, knowing what games are coming up and where, I will do my research. I keep a database  of T20 games where major tournaments are played, and this is my first port of call. I've published my stats for Edgbaston ahead of Saturday's games so you can see what I look at. As an example, from these stats you can see that sides batting second are at a slight disadvantage, with just 44% of chases being successful, and that this drops to just 21% where sides are chasing over 150. We can also see that first innings scores of 180+ are relatively rare, having occurred in one of every five games so far, on average.

With preparation on the ground done, I'll now look at the sides, looking at the relative strengths of batting line-ups and bowling attacks, who can put on big total, and who can defend lower totals, who likes chasing, who does well when batting first, etc.

I'll put all of this down on a notepad, and have this in front of me during games, as T20 can be fast and furious, and having everything written down means I can focus on the market when I need to, and not have to flail around looking at stats.

Watching and Waiting

During the game, with all the action going on it can be tempting to jump into positions early on. It took me a while to get out of this habit, but I'm glad I did. How I approach trading the games now is to look at the runs lines during the first innings, and not enter any positions until after the six over power-play. Looking at the stats page again, you'll see a table at the bottom of the page which gives average totals when a certain number of wickets have been lost in the power-play, and this is where I'll start. I'll also pay very close attention to how the pitch is playing, if it's coming onto the bat nicely, if cutters are sticking in the pitch, indicating batting will be difficult against spinners later on, how quick the outfield is, etc, and try to assess how easy batting will be. I'll then look to take on small positions in the runs lines market, and if I see what I think is some good value, I might take a larger position, but generally I'll keep things tight here.

During the second innings I'll look at the match odds, using all the information on past games and from the first innings to assess who I think is more likely to win the game. T20 can be so unpredictable, so I'll be very active in terms of limiting liability where I can. This unpredictability can also provide good low-risk/high-reward opportunities, such as batting sides going well, and trading at low prices, were you know chasing sides struggle, offering a good opportunity to lay them.

Thinking Longer-term

This might be an obvious point to many, but it is worth reiterating. You will not win every trade, and you will be wrong at times. Giving yourself the best opportunity to be right is all you can do, and at the end of the day we are dealing with uncertainty. Recognising this, and focussing on becoming consistent in the longer-term, and staying in control and sticking to plans for individual games, will be a big factor in successful trading.