Galle - 12th - 16th August 2015
The first of this three test series sees these two subcontinental sides contest a five-day match for the first time since 2010, a game in which VVS Laxman and Virender Sehwag scored centuries for India, who ran out 5-wicket winners. In the meantime, these sides have played 25 ODIs, and changed dramatically in terms of personnel.
The two sides have both struggled to rebuild recently, following the retirement of numerous legendary players, and the respective squads for this tour reflect that. India's certainly looks more settled, with a core that's been together for a couple of years or so now. Sri Lanka's side, on the other hand, looks very inexperienced, and with the legend that is Kumar Sangakkara playing his last test series, the hosts could struggle should India find themselves in a strong position and they need to dig deep to fight back. Sangakkara himself has an excellent record at Galle, scoring 1876 runs at 53.60 in 22 matches, and, although the 3.75 on him to be top Sri Lankan batsman seems a little skinny in terms of value, this is his penultimate test, and with the inexperience around him, he should be close to top of the pile. Backing Kumar Sangakkara for top SL batsman at 3.75 is, therefore, something I'll have a little interest in, but small stakes here are advised.
On the balance of sides, then, India seem to have the upper hand, but one huge factor putting me off backing them is their dismal away record since over the last 25 tests, winning just two and losing 15. Given the struggles India have had away from home, a widespread problem among test sides at the moment, a straight back of them is, to me, not a comfortable bet to take, and with Sri Lanka's new look squad, a back of them is, if anything, less comfortable.
Turning to the ground itself, of the 25 tests played here, Sri Lanka have won 13, lost 6 and drawn 6, and since 2008 we have only seen two draws. Being in Sri Lanka, there may be an issue with rain affecting play, but we have had a similar forecast for the last few tests at Galle, and we have had results in these. The draw is currently trading at 1.85 on the Betfair Exchange, and there is certainly no value in backing it at that price. With the relatively few draws at this venue, and the make up of the two squads here, I definitely think that a result in this match is the most likely outcome, and therefore I'm taking a lay of the draw at 1.85.
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