New Road - 14th August 2015
After two very good quarter finals, the T20Blast rolls into New Road, home of surprise qualifiers Worcestershire. The two previous games have seen comprehensive wins for the two underdogs, with Northants dispatching Sussex thanks to some miserly bowling and David Willey's incredible innings of 100 from 40 balls, and Birmingham resisting Essex. Birmingham are defending champions, and have a hugely talented and experienced squad, but started odds-against last night, with Essex at 1.75. This is a really good example of the market undervaluing a side, and is something that occurred at finals day last year with the same Birmingham side, and so is worth keeping an eye on come this years finals day on 29th August.
Turning to tonight's game, hosts Worcestershire are aiming to rid themselves of the dubious honour of being one on the two counties never to have made finals day, and come into this having had a very strong season so far, finishing second in the North group. The market is currently favouring the visitors, with Hampshire trading at 1.78, and the hosts at 2.26. Looking at the teams, that seems about fair to me, as Hampshire have an excellent batting line up, and some talented bowlers.
As we have seen over the last two nights, however, falling into the trap of thinking big names = easy win in the Blast is a recipe for giving away cash, and there is often value in the underdogs.
I think the pitch tonight will play a huge part in determining who wins this game, and if we see a track that grips and turns, where slower balls stop in the pitch and make it difficult to play shots, Worcestershire should give Hants a good game. They will be aiming to pick up early wickets, since in James Vince, averaging 48.5 this year, and Michael Carberry Hants have one of the strongest opening partnership in the Blast. Any deck that keeps these two in check, and provides assistance for Saeed Ajmal, who has been Worcs stand-out bowler this year, picking up 21 wickets at 14.76, should give Worcestershire a decent chance.
To wrap up then, I think there is slight value with Worcestershire at 2.26 here, but I'll not be taking this before we start. Instead I'll be looking at how the pitch is playing, and looking for an opportunity to lay Hampshire at a fairly low price. Should we get this type of pitch, I'll be keeping a close eye on how the Hampshire attack adapt to this, and if they start to bowl to the conditions, I'll be looking to get out of any position on Worcs fairly quickly.
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