Australia Vs New Zealand 1st Test Preview

Brisbane  5th-9th November 2015

Australia return to the test arena following their humbling in England over the summer and the cancellation of their tour to Bangladesh in October with the visit of New Zealand, the first test between the tow nations since 2011.

Prior to the first test, the war of words between the two camps has been raging, with David Warner accusing New Zealand captain Brendan McCullum of being immature, and underlining Australia's ultra-agressive attitude, both on and off the field. 

This series with be Steve Smith's first as test captain, and Australia's first since the batch of post-ashes retirements. This means that there are a lot of new faces in the Australian XI, with Joe Burns and Usman Khawaja coming into the top order, who have played two and nine tests respectively so far. With Smith confirmed to be batting at four, Adam Voges the only other recognised batsman in the squad, and Mitch Marsh as an all-rounder, this line-up looks very thin to me. The bowling unit, as expected, is much more experienced, with Johnson and Starc leading the line and Nathan Lyon as the spin option. 

New Zealand, on the other hand, boast a lot of experience across the team, having essentially the same squad that toured England earlier this summer. The new ball partnership of Tim Southee and Trent Boult are one of the best in the world right now, and the with Williamson, Taylor and McCullam in the middle-order, the batting also looks very strong. 

Looking at just the teams, you would certainly think that Australia look vulnerable here, particularly in the batting department. With well-matched bowling attacks, this match may well be decided on who is able to get runs on the board, and an untested Australian side is difficult to trust in this regard, especially with such a thin-looking batting line-up. 

Historically, however, Australia's record at the Gabba is formidable, having not lost a test since the West Indies visited in 1988. This is reflected in the current odds, with the market pricing Australia as 1.74 favourites, with New Zealand at 4.3 and the draw at 5s. With both sides known for their positive cricket, a lay of the draw looks a banker here from the off. I'm also very tempted to take the 4.3 about New Zealand here, as I really think Australia are as weak as they have been for years, and can see this price coming in a lot shorter. Given the historical record of Australia at the Gabba, I won't be looking to hold onto this for too long.

I also like the look of Kane Williamson at 4s for top New Zealand bat, as he's proved himself to be one of the worlds best in all conditions. Steve Smith is a little short for top Australian Batsman at 3.25, but is difficult to see where else runs will come from in this side, so might be worth a poke. 

Overall, though, this test should prove an excellent insight into what's to come from these two sides during this series, and one I'm very much looking forward to. 

Pakistan Vs England - 3rd Test Preview

Sharjah  1 - 5th November 2015

Another excellent Test in this series ended on Monday with England unable to resist the Pakistan bowling line-up despite a heroic effort from Adil Rashid and Mark Wood, which saw the Pakistan price drift out from 1.04 to 1.8 before Zulfiqar found Wood's outside edge. The third and final contest looks set to be an interesting test, with both sides ringing the changes and England having to win to square the series. 

There have been seven Tests played at Sharjah, with one draw, and three of the six victories being by an innings. Notably, these innings victories was all by the visiting side, with Australia winning twice in 2002 and New Zealand winning last year having put on 690 in their first innings. Last years Test was noticeable for the volume of wickets taken by spinners, with Mark Craig picking up a ten-for in the match, and Yasir Shah taking four in New Zealand's innings. We can expect a similar pitch here, and so looking to spinners for top bowlers is probably a smart move. Yasir Shah can be backed at 2.75 for Pakistan, and Adil Rashid at 5s for England. Rashid can be dutched with Moeen Ali for 2.73, which seems to offer some value. 

As mentioned above, both sides will be changed from the last test, with Imran Kahn out for Pakistan and Azhar Ali likely to be available for selection. For the visitors, Mark Wood will be rested due to his persistent ankle problem, and Jos Buttler will also miss out. Cook was struggling with a slight injury in the last Test, but looks set to be fit here, but there is speculation over the inclusion of an out-of-form Ian Bell. England's batting line-up, then, is very difficult to predict. Moeen will play, but could be moved into the middle order to replace Buttler with Alex Hales coming in to open with Cook. Hales is touted as the likely opener for the upcoming South Africa tour, and so it would make sense to blood him here. Alternatively, we could see James Taylor, who has had an excellent season in all forms of the game, coming into the line-up somewhere in the middle order for Buttler. A third option would be to include Samit Patel to offer a third spin option, but I think this is unlikely bar any major injuries. 

Overall, England's batting line will see an inexperienced batsman being brought in, and given how fragile the middle order has been so far this tour I can't see this changing on what is likely to be the most difficult pitch of the series. With that in mind, Joe Root for England top bat at 3.75 offers some value. 

Looking at the Match Odds market, it looks like any pre-match value that was around has long since gone, with the draw drifting out from 3.3 to 3.8. Although I'll be looking got oppose this during the Test, both previous games have seen the draw trade much shorter, and could be a good back-to-lay play. Keeping Pakistan on side is definitely recommended, although if they trade very short during the first couple of days they might be a lay, as we've had three Tests in three weeks, and they are an old squad. England have impressed me so far this tour, and could have got close to winning both previous Tests, with light denying them the win in the first, and a shocking morning's batting costing them the second. All three results could happen here, and I won't be taking a position pre-match.

I will be tweeting anything I see as value during the match, so keep and eye on that, and good luck in the markets. 

Pakistan Vs England - 2nd Test Preview

Dubai 22-26th October 2015 

 After what developed into an excellent Test match between these two sides at Abu Dhabi, despite the lifeless pitch, we now move on to Dubai, where pitches have in the past proved to be much more lively. If not huge entertaining for the most part, the first Test has given an indication as to how the two sides will approach the series.

Pakistan, as brilliant as they can be, are also capable of some terrific batting collapses. Given that they had been in the field for two and a half days before their second innings, the subsequent capitulation could be forgiven, but is certainly worth noting from a trading point of view, particularly with Younis and Misbah both being the wrong side of 35. England were a big surprise for me, and I was impressed with their attitude in the first innings, particularly from Cook, applying themselves diligently to build a first innings lead. This is in stark contrast to the touring sides in the UAE last winter, both of whom struggled when batting second.

 With Pakistan set to welcome Yasir Shah back into their squad, I would expect him to provide the cutting edge that their bowling attack lacked in the previous Test, and a more helpful surface should provide their seamers with more to work with. This England batting line up have never faced a quality leg spinner, and so Shah should ask some serious questions of them. England, on the other hand, are set to be unchanged, with Ben Stokes back in training after an injury scare. Adil Rasheed's five-for in the second innings will boost his confidence after what was a bit of a flogging in the first, but he could struggle against a fresher Pakistan attack who will be less willing to throw their wickets away than they were on the fifth day in Abu Dhabi.

Overall then, we have two fairly evenly matched sides playing on a ground that has produced just two draws since 2010. In terms of taking a position before a ball is bowled, similarly to the first Test, a lay of the draw at 3.5 looks the pick of the Match Odds, with little value about Pakistan at 2.42 and England at 3.25. As with the last Test, we will hopefully see the draw trading a lot lower in play, and I will be looking to oppose at short prices as the Test progresses. The toss will be important here, as ever in the subcontinent, as the side batting first will have the best of the conditions both with the bat early on and with the ball in the fourth innings. With this in mind, backing Shoaib Malik at 5.5 for top Pakistan batsman should they win the toss looks nice. I liked the look of Imran Kahn with the ball as well, and if it starts to reverse I think he could cause some serious problems for the England batsman, so the 6s on him to be top Pakistan bowler looks good. A quick look at the England top batsman market, and Moeen Ali at 7.5 looks very generous from Paddy Power, as does the 6.5 on Ian Bell. Both are struggling for form slightly, but will not get a better chance to rectify that in batting friendly conditions, and both are excellent player of spin, which they will likely face plenty of.

 All in all, this Test should be excellent to trade, with both side capable of the sublime and the ridiculous, and conditions looking to provide more of a contest between bat and ball that previously, with this in mind I'll be looking to be active in the Match Odds market, and will try to tweet anything I see as value during the match.

Pakistan Vs England - 1st Test Preview

Abu Dhabi 14-19th October 2015

With Australia's tour of Bangladesh due to start last week cancelled due to security fears, the post-Ashes Test cricket drought comes to an end on Tuesday with the first day of England's visit to the UAE.

England come into this tour after an impressive Ashes victory, but in facing Pakistan in unfamiliar conditions face a very different challenge to that posed by Australia in England.

The hosts comprehensively beat a much better Australian side to the one England recently dispatched, and drew the three test series with New Zealand, losing just one test over the whole of their home series. This loss was the final test of the summer, and a very jaded Pakistan lost by an innings, having played five tests between the 22nd October and 26th November, and so fatigue was a big contribution to this performance. Incidentally, Brendan McCullum and Kane Williamson put on 297 for the second wicket in New Zealand's 690 in this test. The Pakistan squad named for the England series is much the same as for these tours, and so I expect Pakistan to be very strong. Their batting is exceptionally good in these conditions, as is their bowling; in Rahat Ali they have a wicket-taking new ball bowler, and Yasir Shah is one of the best legspinners in the world, and very much at home in the UAE, picking up 12 wickets for 17.25 against Australia.

As has generally been the case with England sides over the last two years or so, there is a big question mark over who will open the batting with Alastair Cook, with Moeen Ali looking to have made the cut, despite Trevor Bayliss' comment that it's "not ideal". This is hardly a vote of confidence in Moeen, and speaks volumes about the England coach's opinion of Alex Hales, particularly since neither of them got into double figures opening in the latest warm-up match. There are also selection issues around Jos Buttler's place in the side, as his Test batting form is poor, and Jonny Bairstow, his most likely replacement as wicket keeper, has been scoring runs for fun this season. Whatever the final XI, England's batting looks shaky to me, and I can see the unfamiliar conditions and Pakistan's quality spin bowling causing serious problems. England's spin bowling is a concern as well, with Adil Rasheed set to play his first test and Moeen likely to provide the second spin option. Rasheed is untested at this level, and if Pakistan are able to blunt him, Moeen is far from a specialist and unlikely, in my opinion, to trouble the Pakistan top order, one of the world's best batting units against spin.

In terms of betting, I can't look past Pakistan here. There is a huge trend for the home side winning tests at the moment, and an even bigger one for a result, and so this seems like the best play. Current prices on the machine are 2.32 to back Pakistan, 3.35 England and 3.6 the draw, and at these prices I'd be a bit wary of getting involved, as I think there will be much better opportunities during the match, especially if Pakistan win the toss and bat first. The two series last year showed just how quickly matches in the UAE can change direction, and a general trend was the draw traded very low in each of them before the visiting side lost wickets quickly, and ultimately capitulated. The ideal situation for me here would be for Pakistan to bat first and bat long, well into the second or even third day, for the draw to trade well below evens before England bat. If this occurs, I'll look to back Pakistan at the end of their innings, and also to be a big draw layer, scaling out liability as England lose wickets. Should England bat first, I can still see the draw getting short during the first innings, but think that it's much more likely in this situation, particularly if England bat past tea on day two. All in all, I really like Pakistan here, and will be looking to develop a position on them as the match develops. Keep an eye on twitter, as I will try to tweet when I think there's some value to be had.

Sri Lanka Vs India – Second Test Preview

Colombo 20 - 25th August 2015

After a quite incredible Test in Galle, India's tour of Sri Lanka moves north to the P Sara Oval in Colombo. The first test consisted of India skittling the hosts for 183, having got them 60/5, and then putting on 375 in their first innings. This lead of almost 200 runs looked safe enough, and with Sri Lanka 5/3 in their second innings, an innings victory for the hosts looked likely, and the market priced them at sub-1.10. A counter-attacking 162* from Dinesh Chandimal with lower-order support from Thirimanne and Mubarak got SL to 367, a lead of 175 runs. Sri Lanka's spinners Herath and Kaushal them promptly cleaned up the Indian batting line up for 112, picking up 7-48 and 3-47 respectively.

This result clarified two things for me, firstly that this Sri Lankan side has plenty of guts, something that I had doubted in my preview of the first Test due to the lack of experience in the squad, and secondly that that 'Indian batsmen are good player of spin' cliche can finally be put to bed as a myth.

There has, however, been little talk of changes to be made by either camp, although Stuart Binny was flown in for the Indians between the Tests and opening bat Shikhar Dhawan has left the Indian touring party with a broken hand. This will be Kumar Sangakkara's final Test match, and backing him to be top Sri Lankan bat at 4s with Corals purely for sentimental reasons is something I'm looking at. Other standouts in this market look to be Chandimal at 8s and skipper Angelo Matthews at 6s.

In the match odds market, the hosts are currently 2.86/2.88, India 3.35/3.4 and the draw 2.80/2.82. As ever with Tests at the moment, opposing the draw looks an excellent play here, the batting of both sides has proved itself to be fragile, and both camps have been emphasising the fact that they'll be chasing the win.

Looking at previous Tests on this ground, the last draw here was in 2003, and this is the only one in the last 13 Tests here since September 1993, so history is on our side. There are some thunderstorms forecast, but this was the case for the last Test in Galle, and we didn't get any interruptions there, and these sides only need three days and one session to wrap up the four innings in that game.

I'm not convinced to back either of these sides here, Sri Lanka are still an inexperienced side, despite a strong performance last time out, and India are equally likely to come roaring back at their hosts as they are to collapse in a heap. The lay of the draw at 2.82, therefore, is the best play in my opinion.

The Ashes - Fifth Test Preview

The Oval 20 - 25th August 2015

The fifth and final Test of what has been an incredible series so far kicks off at the Oval this Thursday as a dead rubber, since England wrapped up the series last time out at Trent Bridge.

I very much doubt, however, that either side will be approaching this match as an irrelevance, with the England camp talking up the importance of winning 4-1, which would be the first time ever England have won four Tests in a home Ashes series, and Australia looking to prove a point following a hugely disappointing tour so far.

Both sides are in transitory stages, with England in the final stages of rebuilding after the previous away Ashes series, and Australia preparing to lose captain, and final remaining member of the great Aussie side of the 2000s, Michael Clarke. Along with Clarke, opening batsman Chris Rodgers has confirmed that this will be his last Test, veteran seamer Ryan Harris withdrew from the squad, and there are question marks over the future of several other players, Watson, Voges, Fawad and Haddin in particular. Steve Smith has, rightly, been named as successor to Clarke's captaincy, but will not be in charge for this Test, leaving a side that looks to me to be very much betwixt-and-between, waiting for this tour to be over to move on.

This aspect of the Australian squad is making me lean towards backing England again here, with the price currently at 2.5 on the Betfair Exchange. Given the two biggest trends in test cricket at the moment, the lack of draws and the struggles that away sides are having, this seems to be the best play for this match, closely followed by a lay of the draw. I'm planning to effectively take both, but to skew my green from the draw lay onto England, with some green on the visitors, and all liability on the draw. This doesn't give as good value on England, but it does cover me should the Aussies put up a fight. I think we can fairly safely discount the draw here, the weather seems set fair, with perhaps some showers on day one, and the way these two sides are playing, we could lose two full days and still get a result. The oval pitch should provide a bit less seam movement, but it seems England have realised that they're actually quite good in these conditions, and have started ordering pitches to suit, so we may well see another here.

In terms of other markets, there's not a great deal I can see. Rodgers as top Australian bat at 5s might be worth a small play given how he's really the only Aussie bat to show any fight this series. It looks like Anderson will miss out again, and with this being a meaningless test, backing Finn or Wood for top English bowler might be a good play. As discussed in my Fourth Test Preview, Broad has a tendency to turn up when it matters, and as this is a dead rubber, may just go through the motions here. Dutching, betting on both, Finn and Wood gives odds of 2.5 should either finish as top bowler, which looks ok value to me.

Good luck in the markets, and if you have any questions please get in touch on twitter or leave a comment below.

Sri Lanka Vs India - First Test Preview

Galle - 12th - 16th August 2015

The first of this three test series sees these two subcontinental sides contest a five-day match for the first time since 2010, a game in which VVS Laxman and Virender Sehwag scored centuries for India, who ran out 5-wicket winners. In the meantime, these sides have played 25 ODIs, and changed dramatically in terms of personnel.

The two sides have both struggled to rebuild recently, following the retirement of numerous legendary players, and the respective squads for this tour reflect that. India's certainly looks more settled, with a core that's been together for a couple of years or so now. Sri Lanka's side, on the other hand, looks very inexperienced, and with the legend that is Kumar Sangakkara playing his last test series, the hosts could struggle should India find themselves in a strong position and they need to dig deep to fight back. Sangakkara himself has an excellent record at Galle, scoring 1876 runs at 53.60 in 22 matches, and, although the 3.75 on him to be top Sri Lankan batsman seems a little skinny in terms of value, this is his penultimate test, and with the inexperience around him, he should be close to top of the pile. Backing Kumar Sangakkara for top SL batsman at 3.75 is, therefore, something I'll have a little interest in, but small stakes here are advised.

On the balance of sides, then, India seem to have the upper hand, but one huge factor putting me off backing them is their dismal away record since over the last 25 tests, winning just two and losing 15. Given the struggles India have had away from home, a widespread problem among test sides at the moment, a straight back of them is, to me, not a comfortable bet to take, and with Sri Lanka's new look squad, a back of them is, if anything, less comfortable.

Turning to the ground itself, of the 25 tests played here, Sri Lanka have won 13, lost 6 and drawn 6, and since 2008 we have only seen two draws. Being in Sri Lanka, there may be an issue with rain affecting play, but we have had a similar forecast for the last few tests at Galle, and we have had results in these. The draw is currently trading at 1.85 on the Betfair Exchange, and there is certainly no value in backing it at that price. With the relatively few draws at this venue, and the make up of the two squads here, I definitely think that a result in this match is the most likely outcome, and therefore I'm taking a lay of the draw at 1.85.