Strikers Vs Sixers Review

• A century from Travis Head saw the Strikers chase down 177 with three balls to spare after the Sixers looked home and hosed, defending 51 from the last three overs.
• Sean Abbot was the weak link in the Sixers attach, conceding 27 from the 18th over including five boundaries. The rest of the Sixers attack was fairly passable, but Abbot served up hit-able filth to Head, who smashed it to all parts.
• This was after a similarly poor bowling display from the Strikers seamers, who couldn't contain the Sixers despite picking up regular wickets. 
• This game underlines why betting on these sides is difficult, as they're both very unpredictable, and can be anywhere between amazing and awful, often in the same game. Keep stakes small and green up wherever possible would be my advice for their upcoming games.

The Strikers host the Scorchers at the Adelaide Oval on 5th Jan

The Sixers visit the Scorchers at the WACA on 2nd Jan

Renegades Vs Scorchers Review

• A comprehensive win from the Scorchers, chasing down 171 without losing a wicket with an unbeaten 90 from an in-form Michael Klinger, and 76 from Shaun Marsh. 
• The Renegades top order fired here, with openers Aaron Finch and Chris Gayle scoring 72 and 41 respectively, in a very respectable 170. 
• Another poor showing from the Renegades bowlers, however, saw the Scorchers openers knock off the 171 required for the win within 19 overs. Michael Klinger is in a rich vein of form, and anyone who follows me on twitter would have seen I had backed his overs, which landed before the end of the power play. A bad day to not to be a spread-bettor... 
• The Scorchers have hit their straps after an opening-day defeat to the Heat, and look set to challenge for the title here. The Scorchers lost their opening game last year, but that was the only game they did lose, and a repeat of this in BBL05 would not be surprising here. 

The Renegades play the Stars at the MCG on 2nd Dec

The Scorchers host the Sixers at the WACA in the second game of the double-header on the 2nd

Heat Vs Hurricanes Review

• A high-scoring affair between two of the worst sides in the tournament, with the Hurricanes' 194 big enough to defend, despite a 50-ball hundred from Heat skipper Chris Lynn. 
• A solid all-round batting display from the Hurricanes, with all of their top five making 25 or more, and Dan Christian finishing off the innings with some immense power hitting, making 56 from 24 balls. 
• Failures from both the Heat's openers against a fairly mediocre bowling side, based on this I'll be looking to back unders on both of their run lines in future games, as Pierson looks out of his depth and Lendl Simmons is still on the plane. 

The Hurricanes take on the Thunder on 1st Jan at Hobart

The Heat play the Thunder on 3rd Jan at The Gabba

Thunder Vs Strikers Review

• A solid win for the Thunder, who have put last season's disappointment behind them, restricting the Strikers to just 117 and chasing down for the loss of 3 wickets in 16.5 overs. 
• Andre Russell was the star of the show yet again, taking two wickets and making 17 runs. Backing overs on his player performance points, when the line is around 40.5, is looking like a solid money-maker this season, as he will bowl 4 overs every game and contribute with the bat as well. Kallis seems to have hit his straps as well after a slow start, bowling well and steering the chase home. 
• The Strikers put in a poor performance today, with very few meaningful contributions with the bat, and poor management of the bowlers from captain Brad Hodge. Last seasons reliability seems to have gone, and inconsistency is the theme this year, making them a difficult side to bet on. 

The Thunder play the Hurricanes on 1st Jan at Hobart

The Strikers host the Sixers at the Adelaide Oval on Dec 31st

Sixers Vs Stars Review

• A solid win for the Stars, restricting the Sixers to 139 despite some middle-order resistance from Henriques and Silk, and chasing down with eight balls and five wickets to spare.
• Brad Haddin scored just 2, making backing his unders run line, something I've discussed in every Sixers review here, look more and more like an absolute banker this tournament. 
• Glenn Maxwell made 50 for the Stars in a return to form, accompanied by a 50 from Peter Hanscome and an unbeaten 24 from skipper David Hussey. With their middle-order firing like this, the Stars are looking strong, although I have my doubts about the quality of the Sixers, and will be watching their next game closely. 
• Luke Wright seems to be playing a similar role to Brad Haddin, going hard at the top of the order, an is yet to get out of the teens this tournament. Again, taking his unders run line looks like a good bet for Stars games. 

The Sixers take on the Strikers at the Adelaide Oval on 31st Dec

The Stars host the Renegades at the MCG on 2nd Jan

Scorchers Vs Heat Review

• An impressive performance from the Scorchers, restricting the Heat to just 117 before chasing them down for the loss of just one wicket. Following their initial defeat against the Strikers, this was a convincing win for a side I expect to challenge for the title. 
• Three wickets for Andrew Tye, and two for Behrendorff on return form injury in what was a terrible batting performance from the Heat, bar skipper Chris Lynn, who scored an unbeaten 75. Lynn's overs are worth looking at in every Heat innings, and on this performance backing him for top batsman every game should be a money-maker. 
• Michael Klinger carried his bat for 53 in the chase, and looks to be in his usual excellent form for the Scorchers. Backing his overs run line should prove profitable, particularly against weaker bowling attacks. 

The Scorchers visit Docklands stadium, Melbourne to face the Renegades on 30th Dec

The Heat take on the Hurricanes on the 29th at the Gabba

Renegades Vs Sixers Review

• Sixers chase down 172 to beat the Renegades, underlining how thin the Renegades bowling is, and how much I underestimated the Sixers.
• The Renegades batting was fairly solid, but slowed up towards the middle of the innings before Tom Beaton smashed 41 off 23 balls at the death to put on what looked like a defendable total. 
• Dwayne Bravo's player performance line was 35.5. For me this was far too low, given that he bats at five and bowls a full quota. His 45 from 29 balls covered this line with room to spare before he'd bowled a ball, and a similar line in the Renegades next game would be something I'd be piling into.
• Another play that should bear fruit over the course of the tournament is unders on Brad Haddin's run line. Haddin's been given free reign to free his arms from ball one by the Sixers, and should have been out on two of his three ball one's so far, nicking off today and surviving a plumb LBW in game one. With this approach against decent bowling attacks, Haddin will be doing very well to cover 25+ runs more often than not. 
• The Renegades bowling struggles here indicate that defending totals will be a real problem for them, and I'll be looking for a way to oppose them in similar situations going forwards, having been burned a little here backing them to defend. 

The Renegades take on the defending champions the Scorchers at the Emirates on Dec 30th.

The Sixers host the Stars at the SCG on 27th Dec.

Hurricanes Vs Heat Review

• A much-improved showing from the Hurricanes top order on a belter of a pitch saw them put on 184 for the loss of just three wickets, including 87 from 58 balls from skipper Tim Paine, and 40s from Sangakkara and Bailey.
• This firms up my belief that the Heat have comfortably the worst bowling attack in the BBL, and their batting is not much better, particularly at 3, 4 and 5. I'll be opposing them as much as possible going forwards, as they'll be lucky to win a game this year. Their next game against Perth could be carnage. 
• Hobart weren't really tested here, and I'm hoping that the market overestimates them in their upcoming games, as I think they're fairly poor as well, and will struggle to match the other sides in the competition. 

The Hurricanes play the Heat in their next game on 29th Dec at the Gabba

The Heat face a daunting trip to the WACA to face defending champs the Scorchers on Boxing day

Scorchers Vs Strikers Review

• A disappointing start to the campaign from the Scorchers, limping to 151 having been in a strong position and then failing to defend. Conversely, a strong showing from an underrated Strikers side. 
• As with the Stars, the market strongly overvalued Perth's chances throughout the game due to their reputation as excellent defenders of low totals. With Nathan Coulter-Nile dislocating his shoulder fielding here, and Jason Behrendorff out injured, this reputation is probably unjustified,  and going against it could prove a good money-maker, as it was today. Perth started last season in almost identical fashion, before putting together a string of wins, so look for them to bounce back against a weak Heat side next up.
• Like last season, Adelaide seem to be quietly a very strong side, and I'll be looking for opportunities to back them going forwards. 

The Scorchers take on the Heat on Boxing day at the WACA

The Strikers play Sydney Thunder on the 28th Dec at the Sydney Showground

Sixers Vs Hurricanes Review

• A much-improved Sixers performance after their disappointing turnout against the Thunder in match one, putting on a big score and defending comfortably, bowling the Hurricanes out for just 91.
• Most of the Sixers top order contributed here in what was a strong batting display led by Brad Haddin, although this was against what is probably the weakest bowling attack in the BBL.
• The only contribution from Hobart's batting was captain George Bailey's 62 from 45 balls, with 7 extras, the next highest score was 5. All in all a woeful display from the Hurricanes. Backing Bailey's overs run line could be a good earner this tournament.

The Sixers visit the Renegades at Docklands Stadium on the 23rd

The Hurricanes take on the Heat at Hobart with both sides looking to bounce back from poor starts on the 22nd

Thunder Vs Stars Review

• Usman Khawaja's century on return from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the conclusion of the New Zealand test series set up the Thunder for an impressive win. 
• The Stars were again overvalued by the market for the majority of the game, offering excellent trading opportunities. Luke Wright at the top of the order looked to knock every ball out of the park, which seems to be his role in the side. I'll be looking for opportunities to take unders on his run line when the better bowlers come on, as with Russell today. 
• Old-timers KP and Jacques Kallis proved they've still got it, KP smashing the ball to all parts, whilst calling it all live on the mic with the comms team, and Kallis defending 10 off the last over with the ball. Kallis scored just 9 with the bat, and looks to be a contender for going under on his run lines. 
• Dre-Russ smashed through his Player Performance line again, and backing overs on this every game should have a massive positive expectancy as long as the line stays around the 40.5 mark. 

The Thunder take on the Strikers next up at the Showgrounds Stadium

The Stars play the Sixers on Dec 27th at the SCG

Heat Vs Renegades Review

• After setting what should have been a total they could defend quite comfortably, the Heat ended up letting the Renegades off the hook after getting them under pressure during the chase. 
• Poor captaincy was an issue here, with Chris Lynn taking off Badree who had bowled two overs for just 7 and bringing on seamers, with the next three overs going for 10, 10 and 17.
• The Heat's batting looked strong, with Ben Cutting smashing vital runs down the order. With him coming in late on, his run line might be on the low side, and backing his overs should be a money-maker. 
• For all the Renegades big names, Cam White to me looked their strongest bat. Chris Gayle struggled with the short ball, and most sides should pepper him with some chin music on these bouncy Australian pitches, so he could struggle with that. With White's quality, he'll be another player I'll be looking to take overs on his run lines, or buy his runs. 
• Overall, the Heat look better than last season, but their bowling was quite poor, and choked under pressure. If they find themselves in a similar situation again, I'll certainly be opposing them, especially if Badree has bowled out.

Strikers Vs Stars Review

• Similarly to last years competition, the Stars were overrated by the market, and were too short for most of the game. No side had chased a score as big as Adelaide's at this ground, and if the Stars were defending I'd expect them to be priced around 1.4-1.5, where the Strikers were 1.6-1.7. Given this, and the fact their next opposition the Thunder were fairly underrated in their last game, taking on the Stars could be a good strategy. 
• As expected, the Strikers were fairly solid. Despite losing three early wickets, veteran Brad Hodge and Alex Ross shored up the middle order, putting on a 110 run partnership. Ross was in great touch, and getting on his run lines in the next game will be something I'll look at. 

The Stars play this Sunday, 20th Dec, taking on the Thunder at the MCG

The Strikers play defending champions the Scorchers at the WACA on the 21st Dec

Thunder Vs Sixers Review

• First thing to note from this game was how poor the Sixers were. Missing Starc, Smith, Lee, etc from last season, they struggled to compete against the Thunder, who have improved from last seasons poor showing. Opposing the Sixers going forward should be a good strategy. 
• In terms of players, Nick Maddinson for the Sixers looked very out of touch with the bat, and perhaps the pressure of captaincy is taking it's toll. I'll be looking to back under in his run line going forwards. I'll be taking a similar approach with Brad Haddin, who was plumb LBW first ball of the innings but not given, and stated afterwards that his job is to get the innings off to a flyer. Hopefully he'll carry on swinging from ball one, and will end up giving his wicket away cheaply.
• For the Thunder, playing unders on Kallis' run line might also be a goer, as he generally scores quite slowly nowadays. Andre Russell, or Dre-Russ as he apparently likes to be known, was not given much of a chance with the bat, facing just 5 balls, but picked up 3 wickets for 13 with the ball, bowling with some good pace and bounce. Most of Cricket Twitter were on his Player Performance Points at over 19.5 with Bet365, which was misquoted and adjusted to 40.5. He ended up beating this line easily, and if we see similar again in the next game I'll be steaming in on the overs. 

The Sixers play the Hurricanes on Sunday 20th Dec. at the SCG

The Thunder also play on Sunday, taking on the Stars at the MCG

BBL Preview

Big Bash League 2015-16 Preview

On 17th December, the fifth Big Bash League, Australia's T20 competition starts with a Sydney derby, pitting the Thunder against the Sixers. This is by far and away my favourite T20 league for a number of reasons; all games are televised, the sides are excellent and games tend to be competitive. The only slight downside is Damien Flemming on comms, but the mute button soon fixes that.

Looking ahead to this year's competition, I take a look at the squads for each of the franchises to give some context to the upcoming games, and also assess where I think there might be some value in the ante post markets. The FTE rating given to each side is an assessment of how I see their strength in batting, bowling, squad depth and ability to win games, and gives an indication of how I see each side relative to the others in the competition.

As with most T20 leagues, sides can very drastically from year to year, so I'd advise being cautious with staking in the early part of the tournament until you get more of a feel for how sides are performing this time around.

Adelaide Strikers

The Strikers had an excellent BBL04, winning six of their seven regular season games before being blown away by the Sixers in the first semi-final, bowled out for 94 chasing 181. For a side of relatively unknown players to have the best regular season record of the competition shows just how tough to beat the Strikers were last year, but the choke in the semi indicates that they didn't cope well with the pressure in the knockout game. The appointment of Jason Gillespie as coach may go some way to address this, but the Strikers squad is missing some key player this time around. From last season, the Strikers have lost Ryan ten Doeschate, Johan Botha, Shaun Tait and Adam Zampa, all experienced players and the side looks weaker for these losses. Kieran Pollard's knee injury sustained during the South African Ram Slam T20 competition has deprived the Strikers of his services in BBL05, with their two overseas players now being Mahela Jayawardene and Adil Rasheed, who is likely to miss some of the tournament due to international commitments with England's white ball sides. Overall, I'm expecting the Strikers to be slightly weaker than last season, as I feel they have lost some key players. I won't be opposing them just on this, however, and will be watching their early games closely to see if this is the case. 

FTE Rating: 6/10


Brisbane Heat 

Last seasons whipping-boys, the Brisbane Heat will be hoping that a much-changed squad will put in a stronger showing this time around. The addition of Alex Doolan and Lendl Simmons should strengthen their batting, newly appointed captain Chris Lynn expected to go big after a strong showing in the 50-over Matador Cup, and Ben Cutting is capable of smashing quick runs down the order. Where the Heat look weak, however, is their bowling unit, which looks the weakest in the competition despite the addition of Samuel Badree. Given this, I can't see them improving much from last season, and will be looking to oppose them first up against the Renegades, and as much as possible in their later games if this goes to plan. 

FTE Rating: 4/10


Hobart Hurricanes 

The Hurricanes, having won just three of their eight games last season, put in a disappointing performance given the strength of their squad. This time around, their squad, with the additions of Dan Christian, Shaun Tait and Kumar Sangakkara, looks a little stronger than last year, with a solid batting line-up and what should be a competitive bowling unit. The three additions previously mentioned should add plenty of experience, and with George Bailey and Darren Sammy returning, the Hurricanes will hope to draw on this experience to close out games. Going into the early games, I'm neutral on the Hurricanes, and will be watching their opener against the Sixers on Saturday closely before forming an opinion.

FTE Rating: 5.5/10


Melbourne Renegades

Another side who failed to live up to expectation last season, the Renegades have bolstered their squad with arguably the two biggest overseas names in the competition in West Indians Chris Gayle and Dwayne Bravo, and will be looking for a significant improvement on BBL04. Power certainly won't be an issue for the Renegades batting line-up, with big-hitters Gayle and Bravo joining captain Aaron Finch. The capture of Xavier Doherty from Hobart could prove to be key, as the left arm spinner has performed very well for the Tasmanian side, with 24 career Big Bash wickets, and should support the Renegades impressive seam attack well. Overall, the Renegades have a very strong squad, and, assuming they perform to their capabilities, could be in with a shout of making the semi-finals.

FTE Rating: 6.5/10


Melbourne Stars

The Stars, with their plethora of big-names, were an excellent side to oppose during their early BBL04 games, as despite their undoubted quality, they were incapable winning  until dismissing the Renegades for just 57 kick-started their season. They eventually made the Semi-finals, losing to the champions Scorchers. Losing Cam White and Jackson Bird in the off-season would have been a blow, but in Evan Glubis, Adam Zampa and Ben Hilfenhaus they have some more than capable replacements. For my money, the Stars have one of the strongest sides in the competition, and if they can address the inability to win games they suffered from last year, and finally get through a semi-final, they have an excellent chance of taking home the title.

FTE Rating: 7.5/10


Perth Scorchers

Defending BBL champions, the Scorchers come into this years tournament having made very few changes to their playing squad, letting Yasir Arafat and Hilton Cartwright go, and bringing in David Willey. International commitments for a number of key players could hinder the Scorchers this time around, and with injury concerns to opening bowler Jason Behrendorff and Simon Mackin, the Scorchers will have to rely on the depth of their squad this time around. That being said, this side have quality in spades, with very few weak links throughout the squad, and look good to continue where they left of last season and challenge for the title this time around. 

FTE Rating: 8.5/10


Sydney Sixers

Having reached the final of BBL04, the Sixers, like the Scorchers, have made very few changes to their side this time around. The additions of Jackson Bird and Johan Botha reinforce a squad that will loose three key players to the Australian international team, and will be without gun bowler Mitchell Starc due to injury. Despite this, the Sixers still look strong and will be looking to emulate last seasons form, and I expect them to reach the semi-finals here. With the absentees, however, they are left with a relatively small squad, and should they suffer from further injuries could struggle to find quality replacements.

FTE Rating: 6.5/10


Sydney Thunder

After a disappointing showing in BBL04, winning just two of their games, the Thunder return with a much-changed squad looking to give a better account of themselves. Despite the changes, the Thunder squad does still look weak to me, particularly in their batting. In Mike Hussey and Jacques Kallis they have two greats of the game, but also two guys who are both pushing 40 and who's best years are behind them. Andre Russell is an excellent signing, and if he continues his Ram Slam form should provide plenty of middle-order firepower, provided he is given enough of a chance, and will also reinforce what is a relatively good bowling line-up. Gurinder Sandhu had an excellent BBL04, and was subsequently picked for the Australian ODI side. If he bowls to his capabilities he should walk the Thunder top bowler market, although the only price currently (2.88 at Stan James) is a little short, and should get bigger once other bookies price this up. 

FTE Rating: 5/10

Outright Tips

Perth Scorchers at 6 with Sporting Bet

As you can see from the write-up above, I make Perth the strongest side here, and will therefore be backing them in the outright market. The Stars and the Renegades both look strong, but there are question marks over both sides for me, and so I'm backing Perth to retain their crown. 

Looking at the top bat/bowler markets, I've gone for players who will play most, if not all of the games, as there are international schedules for the latter part of the tournament which will see some of the bigger names leave. 

Top Tournament Batsman

Kumar Sangakkara at 15 (widely available) Sangakkara will be opening for the Hurricanes, and comes into the tournament in excellent form. 15s is a decent price and well worth taking. 

David Willey at 101 with TitanBet Willey will be opening for the Scorchers, and so should see plenty of action. His 100 from 40 against Sussex in the English summer showed what he's capable of, and 101 is just completely wrong. Snap it up before it disappears. 

Jordan Silk at 151 with Betfair This is a bit of a long shot, but I really like Silk as a batsman, and he scored quickly coming in down the order last season. With the Sixers having quite a thin squad he could be given more of a chance this time around, and at 150/1 is worth a poke. 

Top Tournament Bowler

Andrew Tye at 26 (widely available) With injury concerns around other Scorchers bowlers, Tye should get plenty of overs under his belt, and has had a decent 50-over summer so far. He was fourth in the wicket takers list for BBL04, so looks good value at  25/1.

Sean Abbot at 31 with Paddy Power Abbot bowls with blistering pace, guile and plenty of variations, and will bowl his full quota in every game. 30/1 from Paddys is far too big here, with the 25/1 elsewhere more accurate.

Johan Botha at 51 with Stan James Another long shot, but Botha impressed last year, picking up wickets and keeping it tight in terms of runs. I think this is worth a small go, as the price seems a bit on the big side. 

Dolphins Vs Titans - RamSlam T20 Challenge Final Preview

Unlimited Titans Vs Sunfoil Dolphins 

SuperSport Park, Centurion 12th December 2015

Following the Dolphins victory over the Cobras in Wednesday's play-off game, the two best sides in the competition face off this Saturday at SuperSport Park. The Titans won 8 of their 10 group games, losing to the Dolphins their first game, coming within 6 run of chasing 179, and to the Knights in their dead-rubber final game. The Dolphins started the competition strongly, inspired by Kevin Pietersen, who scored 364 runs at an average of 121.33 in his first five games, but dropped off after Pietersen's departure, losing three of their last four games before Pietersen's return for the play-off. 

The play-off game was a strong performance from the Dolphins, putting on 99 for the first wicket, with meaningful contributions from David Miller and KP, putting on a total of 178. Some good hitting from the Cobras put pressure on the Dolphins bowling, but 19 year-old Andile Phehlukwayo and T20 gun Dwayne Bravo soaked it up, defending a run a ball off the last 3 overs to secure the win.

The Titans have justified their status as favourites for the competition with consistent performances throughout, with internationals De Kock, Morris, Morkle, Weise and Behardien showing their class against relatively average sides. 

The challenge that the Dolphins pose, however, should be more of a test for the Titans, who are best priced at 1.77 favourites, and the Dolphins priced at 2.2. This seems fair to me, and I'll not be looking to get involved in this market before the game. 

One standout price is in the Dolphins Top Bat market, with Ladbrokes laying 3.75 on KP. Given his form so far this competition, and his love of the limelight, this price is definitely worth taking. Another price I like is the 2.1 that Paddy Power are offering on the Dolphins having the highest opening partnership. Given the 99 they put on the other night this looks value to me, and I don't rate Henry Davids who'll likely be opening with Quentin De Kock for the Titans. 

Looking at the ground stats for Centurion, we can see that there is a slight bias towards chasing, with sides batting second winning 55.1% of the 49 completed 20-over games. There have also been some high scores chased, with 224 being the highest, followed by 189 and 176. Straight away this shows that games here are never over at the half-way mark regardless of the score, and this could present some nice opportunities to cheaply lay the side batting first making a big score. The data for powerplays show that sides keeping wickets in hand in the first six overs tend to put on big scores, with the mean scores when no wickets are lost in the first six overs is 187.2, and 170.5 when one wicket is lost. This can give an edge looking at the run lines, with overs being the play if the side batting first don't loose wickets in the first six. 

In summary, I think this will be an excellent game to round off the tournament, with some world-class players on show for the two best teams in the competition. I think the Titans have a stronger side, and should edge the game, but the 1.77 on them to win does not offer much value. Instead I'll be backing KP for top Dolphins batsman at 3.75, and the Dolphins to have the highest first wicket partnership at odds-against. In-play, I'll be looking at my ground stats to identify opportunities, but the slight advantage to chasing, the big scores chased here and the high scores when wickets are preserved in the first innings powerplay are a great start. 

Good luck, I hope you've enjoyed this tournament as much as I have, and have found the ground stats useful.