Unlimited Titans Vs Sunfoil Dolphins
SuperSport Park, Centurion 12th December 2015
Following the Dolphins victory over the Cobras in Wednesday's play-off game, the two best sides in the competition face off this Saturday at SuperSport Park. The Titans won 8 of their 10 group games, losing to the Dolphins their first game, coming within 6 run of chasing 179, and to the Knights in their dead-rubber final game. The Dolphins started the competition strongly, inspired by Kevin Pietersen, who scored 364 runs at an average of 121.33 in his first five games, but dropped off after Pietersen's departure, losing three of their last four games before Pietersen's return for the play-off.
The play-off game was a strong performance from the Dolphins, putting on 99 for the first wicket, with meaningful contributions from David Miller and KP, putting on a total of 178. Some good hitting from the Cobras put pressure on the Dolphins bowling, but 19 year-old Andile Phehlukwayo and T20 gun Dwayne Bravo soaked it up, defending a run a ball off the last 3 overs to secure the win.
The Titans have justified their status as favourites for the competition with consistent performances throughout, with internationals De Kock, Morris, Morkle, Weise and Behardien showing their class against relatively average sides.
The challenge that the Dolphins pose, however, should be more of a test for the Titans, who are best priced at 1.77 favourites, and the Dolphins priced at 2.2. This seems fair to me, and I'll not be looking to get involved in this market before the game.
One standout price is in the Dolphins Top Bat market, with Ladbrokes laying 3.75 on KP. Given his form so far this competition, and his love of the limelight, this price is definitely worth taking. Another price I like is the 2.1 that Paddy Power are offering on the Dolphins having the highest opening partnership. Given the 99 they put on the other night this looks value to me, and I don't rate Henry Davids who'll likely be opening with Quentin De Kock for the Titans.
Looking at the ground stats for Centurion, we can see that there is a slight bias towards chasing, with sides batting second winning 55.1% of the 49 completed 20-over games. There have also been some high scores chased, with 224 being the highest, followed by 189 and 176. Straight away this shows that games here are never over at the half-way mark regardless of the score, and this could present some nice opportunities to cheaply lay the side batting first making a big score. The data for powerplays show that sides keeping wickets in hand in the first six overs tend to put on big scores, with the mean scores when no wickets are lost in the first six overs is 187.2, and 170.5 when one wicket is lost. This can give an edge looking at the run lines, with overs being the play if the side batting first don't loose wickets in the first six.
In summary, I think this will be an excellent game to round off the tournament, with some world-class players on show for the two best teams in the competition. I think the Titans have a stronger side, and should edge the game, but the 1.77 on them to win does not offer much value. Instead I'll be backing KP for top Dolphins batsman at 3.75, and the Dolphins to have the highest first wicket partnership at odds-against. In-play, I'll be looking at my ground stats to identify opportunities, but the slight advantage to chasing, the big scores chased here and the high scores when wickets are preserved in the first innings powerplay are a great start.
Good luck, I hope you've enjoyed this tournament as much as I have, and have found the ground stats useful.
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