BBL Preview

Big Bash League 2015-16 Preview

On 17th December, the fifth Big Bash League, Australia's T20 competition starts with a Sydney derby, pitting the Thunder against the Sixers. This is by far and away my favourite T20 league for a number of reasons; all games are televised, the sides are excellent and games tend to be competitive. The only slight downside is Damien Flemming on comms, but the mute button soon fixes that.

Looking ahead to this year's competition, I take a look at the squads for each of the franchises to give some context to the upcoming games, and also assess where I think there might be some value in the ante post markets. The FTE rating given to each side is an assessment of how I see their strength in batting, bowling, squad depth and ability to win games, and gives an indication of how I see each side relative to the others in the competition.

As with most T20 leagues, sides can very drastically from year to year, so I'd advise being cautious with staking in the early part of the tournament until you get more of a feel for how sides are performing this time around.

Adelaide Strikers

The Strikers had an excellent BBL04, winning six of their seven regular season games before being blown away by the Sixers in the first semi-final, bowled out for 94 chasing 181. For a side of relatively unknown players to have the best regular season record of the competition shows just how tough to beat the Strikers were last year, but the choke in the semi indicates that they didn't cope well with the pressure in the knockout game. The appointment of Jason Gillespie as coach may go some way to address this, but the Strikers squad is missing some key player this time around. From last season, the Strikers have lost Ryan ten Doeschate, Johan Botha, Shaun Tait and Adam Zampa, all experienced players and the side looks weaker for these losses. Kieran Pollard's knee injury sustained during the South African Ram Slam T20 competition has deprived the Strikers of his services in BBL05, with their two overseas players now being Mahela Jayawardene and Adil Rasheed, who is likely to miss some of the tournament due to international commitments with England's white ball sides. Overall, I'm expecting the Strikers to be slightly weaker than last season, as I feel they have lost some key players. I won't be opposing them just on this, however, and will be watching their early games closely to see if this is the case. 

FTE Rating: 6/10


Brisbane Heat 

Last seasons whipping-boys, the Brisbane Heat will be hoping that a much-changed squad will put in a stronger showing this time around. The addition of Alex Doolan and Lendl Simmons should strengthen their batting, newly appointed captain Chris Lynn expected to go big after a strong showing in the 50-over Matador Cup, and Ben Cutting is capable of smashing quick runs down the order. Where the Heat look weak, however, is their bowling unit, which looks the weakest in the competition despite the addition of Samuel Badree. Given this, I can't see them improving much from last season, and will be looking to oppose them first up against the Renegades, and as much as possible in their later games if this goes to plan. 

FTE Rating: 4/10


Hobart Hurricanes 

The Hurricanes, having won just three of their eight games last season, put in a disappointing performance given the strength of their squad. This time around, their squad, with the additions of Dan Christian, Shaun Tait and Kumar Sangakkara, looks a little stronger than last year, with a solid batting line-up and what should be a competitive bowling unit. The three additions previously mentioned should add plenty of experience, and with George Bailey and Darren Sammy returning, the Hurricanes will hope to draw on this experience to close out games. Going into the early games, I'm neutral on the Hurricanes, and will be watching their opener against the Sixers on Saturday closely before forming an opinion.

FTE Rating: 5.5/10


Melbourne Renegades

Another side who failed to live up to expectation last season, the Renegades have bolstered their squad with arguably the two biggest overseas names in the competition in West Indians Chris Gayle and Dwayne Bravo, and will be looking for a significant improvement on BBL04. Power certainly won't be an issue for the Renegades batting line-up, with big-hitters Gayle and Bravo joining captain Aaron Finch. The capture of Xavier Doherty from Hobart could prove to be key, as the left arm spinner has performed very well for the Tasmanian side, with 24 career Big Bash wickets, and should support the Renegades impressive seam attack well. Overall, the Renegades have a very strong squad, and, assuming they perform to their capabilities, could be in with a shout of making the semi-finals.

FTE Rating: 6.5/10


Melbourne Stars

The Stars, with their plethora of big-names, were an excellent side to oppose during their early BBL04 games, as despite their undoubted quality, they were incapable winning  until dismissing the Renegades for just 57 kick-started their season. They eventually made the Semi-finals, losing to the champions Scorchers. Losing Cam White and Jackson Bird in the off-season would have been a blow, but in Evan Glubis, Adam Zampa and Ben Hilfenhaus they have some more than capable replacements. For my money, the Stars have one of the strongest sides in the competition, and if they can address the inability to win games they suffered from last year, and finally get through a semi-final, they have an excellent chance of taking home the title.

FTE Rating: 7.5/10


Perth Scorchers

Defending BBL champions, the Scorchers come into this years tournament having made very few changes to their playing squad, letting Yasir Arafat and Hilton Cartwright go, and bringing in David Willey. International commitments for a number of key players could hinder the Scorchers this time around, and with injury concerns to opening bowler Jason Behrendorff and Simon Mackin, the Scorchers will have to rely on the depth of their squad this time around. That being said, this side have quality in spades, with very few weak links throughout the squad, and look good to continue where they left of last season and challenge for the title this time around. 

FTE Rating: 8.5/10


Sydney Sixers

Having reached the final of BBL04, the Sixers, like the Scorchers, have made very few changes to their side this time around. The additions of Jackson Bird and Johan Botha reinforce a squad that will loose three key players to the Australian international team, and will be without gun bowler Mitchell Starc due to injury. Despite this, the Sixers still look strong and will be looking to emulate last seasons form, and I expect them to reach the semi-finals here. With the absentees, however, they are left with a relatively small squad, and should they suffer from further injuries could struggle to find quality replacements.

FTE Rating: 6.5/10


Sydney Thunder

After a disappointing showing in BBL04, winning just two of their games, the Thunder return with a much-changed squad looking to give a better account of themselves. Despite the changes, the Thunder squad does still look weak to me, particularly in their batting. In Mike Hussey and Jacques Kallis they have two greats of the game, but also two guys who are both pushing 40 and who's best years are behind them. Andre Russell is an excellent signing, and if he continues his Ram Slam form should provide plenty of middle-order firepower, provided he is given enough of a chance, and will also reinforce what is a relatively good bowling line-up. Gurinder Sandhu had an excellent BBL04, and was subsequently picked for the Australian ODI side. If he bowls to his capabilities he should walk the Thunder top bowler market, although the only price currently (2.88 at Stan James) is a little short, and should get bigger once other bookies price this up. 

FTE Rating: 5/10

Outright Tips

Perth Scorchers at 6 with Sporting Bet

As you can see from the write-up above, I make Perth the strongest side here, and will therefore be backing them in the outright market. The Stars and the Renegades both look strong, but there are question marks over both sides for me, and so I'm backing Perth to retain their crown. 

Looking at the top bat/bowler markets, I've gone for players who will play most, if not all of the games, as there are international schedules for the latter part of the tournament which will see some of the bigger names leave. 

Top Tournament Batsman

Kumar Sangakkara at 15 (widely available) Sangakkara will be opening for the Hurricanes, and comes into the tournament in excellent form. 15s is a decent price and well worth taking. 

David Willey at 101 with TitanBet Willey will be opening for the Scorchers, and so should see plenty of action. His 100 from 40 against Sussex in the English summer showed what he's capable of, and 101 is just completely wrong. Snap it up before it disappears. 

Jordan Silk at 151 with Betfair This is a bit of a long shot, but I really like Silk as a batsman, and he scored quickly coming in down the order last season. With the Sixers having quite a thin squad he could be given more of a chance this time around, and at 150/1 is worth a poke. 

Top Tournament Bowler

Andrew Tye at 26 (widely available) With injury concerns around other Scorchers bowlers, Tye should get plenty of overs under his belt, and has had a decent 50-over summer so far. He was fourth in the wicket takers list for BBL04, so looks good value at  25/1.

Sean Abbot at 31 with Paddy Power Abbot bowls with blistering pace, guile and plenty of variations, and will bowl his full quota in every game. 30/1 from Paddys is far too big here, with the 25/1 elsewhere more accurate.

Johan Botha at 51 with Stan James Another long shot, but Botha impressed last year, picking up wickets and keeping it tight in terms of runs. I think this is worth a small go, as the price seems a bit on the big side.