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Stars Vs Hurricanes Preview

Melbourne Cricket Ground  - 8:40 GMT 6th January 2016

• Looking at the ground stats for the MCG, there's not a lot that stands out; there's a perfect 50/50 distribution between winning when batting first and second, and not a huge influence of the toss on winning percentages. There have been some big chases though, with four of 179 or above. 
• Using the new BBL05 team stats page, we can see the Stars haven't yet batted first so far this tournament, where the Hurricanes have in four of their five games. Their average score when batting first is 170, the second highest in the competition, but their mean power play score is relatively low at 38, and so it might pay anyone looking to back runs to wait until after the first 6. 
• The Stars have struggled to put in the performances that would be expected from a side with the calibre of players that they have. The return of Kevin Pietersen after missing a game over christmas for the birth of his second child will be a boost, but he didn't look comfortable against the Renegades, making just 6. Luke Wright, after a poor start to the tournament hit an unbeaten 109 from 63 balls to guide the chase home, and his run line is a touch on the low side here. He's also worth backing for top bat, as the Hurricanes bowling doesn't offer a great deal, meaning wickets may be at a premium, and so the openers will likely see a lot of the bowling.
• The Hurricanes have been a fairly inconsistent side so far in BBL05, particularly in the batting department, with their top order failing in the last game after looking like they had regained some form. Purely based on this inconsistency, a small back of Dan Christian for top run scorer at 8.5 is worth taking on, as he has top scored on two occasions, chipping in with vital runs at number six. 

Back Luke Wright for top Stars run scorer at 4.5 with Ladbrokes 

Back Luke Wright over 21.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Dan Christian for top Hurricanes run scorer at 8.5 with PaddyPower 

Strikers Vs Scorchers Review

• A disappointing performance from the Scorchers saw them concede top spot to the Strikers, taking just two wickets and leaking 174 runs. Rare failures from openers Klinger and Marsh and a weak display from the middle order meant that they collapsed to 138 all out in reply. 
• The Strikers put in a solid all-round performance here to beat the Scorchers for a second time this season, with Jayawaedene smashing a 37-ball 57 opening the batting, backed up by Travis Head, 51* (31), and Brad Hodge, 30* (15), who went big at the end after a slight stutter in the middle overs. 
• This was a tough game for me personally, as Aston Agar bowled just two overs, and picked up one of the wickets, beating Behrendorff to to wicket taker, and failures by the Perth openers meant this was a bit of a washout. Taking overs on the Strikers early on, and buying Travis Head's runs in-play meant that I finished flat for the game. 
• This Strikers batting looks very solid with Jayawardene opening and Head and Hodge coming in to accelerate in the middle order, and I'll be looking to keep them onside in their upcoming games. 

The Strikers play the Heat at the Gabba on 8th Jan

The Scorchers visit the Sydney Showground to take on the Thunder on 7th Jan

Strikers Vs Scorchers Preview

Adelaide Oval - 5th January 2016

• The form side of the competition, the Scorchers, visit the Adelaide Oval to take on one of the more inconsistent sides in the Strikers, who claimed a win in the reverse fixture on 21st December. 
• The Strikers have won three of their four so far, beating the Stars, Sixers and Scorchers, while losing to the Thunder having been dismissed for just 117.  This Scorchers side, however, will be their biggest test so far, having been untroubled in their three games since the loss to the Strikers. The Pre-match 1.87 available on a very thin Betfair exchange market looks big on the Scorchers, with low 1.7s a fairer price.
• The Adelaide Oval has a slight bias towards the side batting first, with 58% of games being won by the defending side. Perth have a justified reputation as a side that can defend low totals, and so if they bat first there could be a good opportunity to lay the Strikers cheaply at the start of the chase. 
• The Scorchers have two of the best batsmen and two of the best bowlers for Australian conditions and I'm happy to keep them onside here. As per my preview of Perth's last game, dutching Beherendorff and Tye for top bowler at a touch above evens looks amazing value, and well worth taking, with the 4.33 on offer from Ladbrokes on Beherendorff to be top wicket taker for the Scorchers far too big.
• In their last three games, the Scorchers have lost just two wickets. Based on this and the excellent form of their openers, backing their overs and dutching for top bat is a play that I'm happy to take on here. 

Back the Scorchers at 1.87 on the Betfair Exchange 

Back Jason Beherendorff for top Scorchers bowler at 4.33 with Ladbrokes

Dutch Beherndorff and Tye for top Scorchers wicket taker for 2.08 with Ladbrokes

Back Michael Klinger over 24.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Shaun Marsh over 24.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Dutch Klinger and S Marsh for top Perth run scorer for 1.63 with Ladbrokes

Updated FTE Ratings for BBL05 sides

With BBL05 just over half way through, I though it would be useful to update the FTE Ratings that I gave each side prior to the tournament based on their performances so far. I'm not going to go into too much detail on these, as they're essentially a score out of ten based on my assessment of the teams quality. Perth Scorchers are still top of the list, and the Heat still bottom.  The Thunder are the biggest movers, although they have played the weaker sides in the competition so far.

Perth Scorchers 9/10 (Previously 8.5/10)
Melbourne Stars 7/10 (Previously 7.5/10)
Melbourne Renegades 6/10 (Previously 6.5/10)
Adelaide Strikers 6/10 (Previously 6/10)
Sydney Thunder 6/10 (Previously 5/10)
Sydney Sixers 5.5/10 (Previously 6.5/10)
Hobart Hurricanes 5/10 (Previously 5.5/10)
Brisbane Heat 3.5/10 (Previously 4/10)

Hurricanes Vs Renegades Review

• A comprehensive performance from the Renegades, restricting the Hurricanes to just 140 and chasing this down with six overs to spare. 
• The Hurricanes top order struggled here, with three of the top five scoring five runs between them. A quick fire 58 from pinch hitter Dan Christian batting at six got the Hurricanes to a respectable total, but the power of the Renegades batting line up proved too much for the Hurricanes bowlers. With the fragility of the Hurricanes top order, a small back of Christian for top run scorer could be worthwhile.
• Finch again outscored his opening partner Gayle, but given the upcoming white ball internationals for Australia and Gayle's injudicious comments during his pre-match interview this could be the last time we see these two batting together this BBL. Hopefully not, and we get another chance to back Finch to beat Gayle in the head-to-head. 
• Cam White didn't get much of a chance to challenge for top run scorer, but looked solid yet again scoring an unbeaten 15 to close out the game. 

The Hurricanes play the Stars at the MCG on 6th Jan

The Renegades host the Stars in the second Melbourne derby at Docklands stadium on 9th Jan

Hurricanes Vs Renegades Preview

The Bellerive Oval, Hobart - 4th Jan 2016

• The Bellerive Oval in Hobart is one ground that has a strong bias towards defending totals, with the side batting second winning just 31% of games here. Immediately this offers a bias for trading this match, and there could be some excellent opportunities to oppose the chasing side, particularly if it's the Renegades, as their big-name batsmen are often overrated by the market, and could offer some excellent opportunities to lay them cheaply. 
• These big names also mean there can be a lot of value on offer in the top run scorer market, and one guy who I really like in the Renegades line-up is Cam White. White has looked in good touch so far in BBL05, but has only converted this into runs in the last game, making 54. Any continuation of his form in the last game makes the 5s on offer on him to be top run scorer with Ladbrokes a touch big, and value I'm happy to take. 
• George Bailey is another quietly consistent T20 player, and has scored 56*, 27, 40 and 62* this BBL. He has topped the Hurricanes batting in two of their four games so far this season, and can be backed at 5s to do the same here. 
• The match-up at the top of the Renegades order between Chris Gayle and Aaron Finch, two of the biggest names in world T20 cricket, is one that Finch has had the upper hand in this BBL, outscoring Gayle in three of the 4 games so far. Finch can be backed at 1.83 to continue this trend, and given his form so far should definitely be favourite here in what is currently a coin toss market. 

Keep the side batting first onside trading the match odds market

Back Cam White top Renegades run scorer at 5 with Ladbrokes

Back George Bailey top Hurricanes run scorer at 5 with Stan James

Back Aaron Finch (Vs Gayle) Batsman Match market at 1.83 with Bet365

Heat Vs Thunder Review

• Chris Lynn carried the Heat to an impressive victory here, scoring a 32-ball 75 in chasing down 186 with three balls to spare in a rain-affected game. 
• The Thunder, despite making what should have been a definable score of 186, were put under pressure from ball one by the Heat, and struggled to cope. The 16th over proved the crucial one, with Grinder Sandhu serving up some pies, all right in the slot, and being taken for 25 from the over. 
• Kallis failed to cover his run line again, making 14. His unders is a bet that will win a lot more than it looses this BBL, and well worth taking every time. 
• The Heat's batting finally turned in a performance with the top three all scoring over 34. Chris Lynn was again the star, and backing him at top Heat run scorer would have landed in four of their five games, and with the poor performances of those around him, is a play that should continue to make money. 

The Heat host the Strikers at the Gabba on 8th Jan

The Thunder host the Scorchers at the Sydney Showground Stadium on 7th Jan

Heat Vs Thunder Preview

• After an excellent start to the tournament, the Thunder lost their fourth game, away to the Hurricanes. The Heat have lost all four BBL05 games so far, with none of the games being particularly close. 
• Given the poor form of the Heat, the Thunder are strong favourites here, and best priced at 1.63. There's not much value here, as is often the case in pre-match odds, but I'll be looking to back them in-running as I really don't rate the Heat.
• The Heat's captain Chris Lynn has been the backbone of their batting so far, scoring 101, 75, 1 and 35, and being their top run scorer on all but one occasion. Backing him to continue his form looks good here.
• Thunder opener Jacques Kallis has had a tough tournament so far, scoring 0, 49*, 9 and 15. At 40 years old, Kallis is well and truly into the end of his career, and has struggled at this level. I'm happy to take him on here, as he's covered this run line just once so far this tournament. 

Back the Thunder at 1.8+ in-running, where they're in a good position

Back Chris Lynn over 23.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Chris Lynn top Heat Run Scorer at 4 with Stan James

Back Jacques Kallis under 21.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Scorchers Vs Sixers Review

• Another clinical performance from the Scorchers saw them restrict the Sixers to just 112 from their 20 overs, chasing this down within 15 overs for the loss of just one wicket.
• The only Sixers batsman to look remotely comfortable was Michael Lumb, who made 47 on 45 balls, and covered the overs line tipped in my preview within the first five overs. Lumb has quietly had a very good tournament so far, scoring 34, 4, 63, 15, 31 and 47, covering his run line in 4 of 6 (66.6%) innings. With little batting around him, backing Lumb for Top Batsman in the Sixers upcoming games, and to cover his run line should have a positive expectancy.
• The Scorchers were excellent all over the park today, with three strike bowlers getting wickets, Willey leading the pack with 3/22, AJ Tye 2/22 and Behrendorff 2/24. Dutching Behrendorff and Tye for top bowler at 2.12 was a bad beat, with Nic Maddinson lollypopping a simple catch off Willeys bowling to gift him a wicket.
• Lumping on the Scorchers in their upcoming games will make you plenty, they're in excellent form. They're still available at 3.6 to win the competition, and anyone backing them at 6 before the tournament, as tipped in my preview, is sitting very pretty on this.  

The Scorchers visit the Adelaide Oval to take on the Strikers on 5th Jan

The Sixers play the Heat at the SCG on 10th Jan

Stars Vs Renegades Review

• An unbeaten 63-ball 109 from Luke Wright saw the Stars chase 161 with five and a half overs to spare to clinch the Melbourne derby in front of a crowd of 80,000.
• Having had a poor tournament so far, Wrights innings was fairly costly for me, as I was on his unders, and back Stoinis in the Batsman Match market. No major damage, and the chasing-bias flagged up in my preview meant I more than made up for it trading the Match Odds market. 
• The Renegades would have hoped to have made a lot more than 161, but wickets at regular intervals cost them, as did losing two set bats going into the last 4 overs. This wasn't a great batting performance against what was a fairly average Stars bowling attack. 
• Cam White made 54 from 39 balls, claiming top Renegades bat, having looked good throughout the tournament without converting this into runs. With the stellar names in the Renegades side, he's often overpriced in the Top Runscorer market, and is worth backing in future.
• Another bet I like is the Batsman Match Market with Bet365, who had Aaron Finch as underdog against Chris Gayle. In the four Renegades games so far, Finch has outscored Gayle on three occasions, and for me this should be the other way around, and I'll happily take this value in future games. 

The Stars host the Hurricanes on 6th Jan at the MCG

The Renegades visit Hobart to take on the Hurricanes on 4th Jan

2nd January BBL05 Previews

Melbourne Stars Vs Melbourne Renegades - The MCG

• The Melbourne derby see KP return for the Stars, as two sides with gun batting and poor bowling face off in what's likely to be a high-scoring affair. 
• The market has the Stars as slight favourites at 1.85, with the Renegades at 2.16, which seems fair to me before the off, although I can see this being a tight, swingy game, with plenty of trading opportunities. I won't be picking a winner at these odds.
• Historically, the MCG has seen some big scores chased down, and with the two weaker bowling attacks on show another one could be on the cards, or at least offer some volatility during the second innings to trade. I'll be looking for this, especially if a score of 170+ is made in the first innings and a cheap lay of the defending side is available, but will be quite quick to trade out, preferring to lay again on the fall of a wicket, making lots of smaller trades rather than one or two big ones. 
• One market that looks to offer some value to me is the Batsman Matches offered by Bet365. The pairings for this are Finch and Gayle for the Renegades and Wright and Stoinis for the Stars. Finch and Stoinis are both up 2-1in these head-to-heads in previous games, but are the underdogs at 1.9 (vs the 1.8 offered on Gayle and Wright). 
• Luke Wright is yet to pass 18 this tournament, and the 20.5 run line with Ladbrokes looks a touch high for someone in such poor form, and unders at 1.83 is worth a look.

Lay the bowling side during the second innings and trade out quickly
Back Finch (vs Gayle) and Stones (vs Wright) in the Batsman Matches both at 1.90 with Bet365

Back Luke Wright Under 20.5 Runs with Ladbrokes

Perth Scorchers Vs Sydney Sixers - The WACA

• In the first (and probably last) superhero-themed T20 match, the Scorchers playing as Batman, host the Sixers, playing as Superman. It's not clear if the umpires will be Robin and the Joker, but I'll be very disappointed if not. 
• The Scorchers have recovered from their opening-day defeat to the Strikers to chalk up two comprehensive wins, and are strong favourites here, at 1.49, with the inconsistent Sixers at 3s. I think this is about right, as the Scorchers should win comfortably, but there's not a lot of value on offer. If they trade above 1.8 in play, and are in a recoverable position, I will look to get involved. 
• The WACA is historically a ground where sides batting second have struggled, winning just 38% of games, and so the side batting first here has a very good chance, but Perth have a justified reputation for a side able to defend low scores, so this could counteract the historical trend. 
• Michael Klinger has scores of 19, 53* and 90* so far this BBL, and is a batsman in form at the moment. His run line with Ladbrokes is 26.5, which looks good but may come in as other firms price this market up. I got 23.5 with Bet365 in his last game, and would steam into a similar line. Ladbrokes are offering 3.25 on Klinger being top Scorchers bat, which looks a very nice bet. 
• Having missed the first game through injury, Jason Behrendorff has taken 2/32 and 2/14 in the last two Scorchers games. The 4.5 Ladbrokes are offering on him to be Top Scorchers wicket taker is massive, and can be dutched with Andrew Tye, who is 4s, to create a 2.12 shot. Both will likely bowl their full quota, 40% of the innings, and have both performed well so far, so this looks good. 
• Another early run line that looks quite nice is Michael Lumb's, which seems a little short at 19.5, again with Ladbrokes. Lumb has had a good tournament so far, besides dropping a sitter in the first match, scoring 31, 15, 63, 4 and 34. With the WACA being a good batting surface traditionally, the 1.83 on him reaching 20 looks value to me. 

Look for opportunities to back the Scorchers at 1.8+
Back Michael Klinger for top Scorchers run scorer at 3.25 with Ladbrokes
Back Jason Behrendorff for top Scorchers wicket taker at 4.5 with Ladbrokes
Back Michael Lumb over 19.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Hurricanes Vs Thunder Review

• A solid all-round batting display from the Hurricanes, making 163 with contributions of 15+ from all but one of their seven batsmen to face a ball, and a 29-ball 56 from skipper George Bailey. The Thunder couldn't match this, despite getting into a good position during the chase, and the Hurricanes won by 11.
• A good example of how ground history can help in betting, with very few successful chases at Hobart in the previous games played here indicating that opposing the Thunder could pay off. They were available to lay at sub-1.2 at points during the chase.
• The Thunder's unbeaten start to the tournament, winning three of three, has come to an end, and with tougher fixtures coming up, they could continue to struggle. Their batting here was poor, despite Mike Hussey getting them into a position where they really should have won, and being incapable of closing out the game is not a good sign.   
• Jacques Kallis scored a 4-ball duck here, and with scores so far of 15, 9, 49* and 0, I do like talking him on and backing unders on his run-line, as I think he's past his prime. 

The Hurricanes host the Renegades at the Bellerive Oval, Hobart on 4th Jan

The Thunder visit the Gabba to take on the Heat on 3rd Jan