2nd January BBL05 Previews

Melbourne Stars Vs Melbourne Renegades - The MCG

• The Melbourne derby see KP return for the Stars, as two sides with gun batting and poor bowling face off in what's likely to be a high-scoring affair. 
• The market has the Stars as slight favourites at 1.85, with the Renegades at 2.16, which seems fair to me before the off, although I can see this being a tight, swingy game, with plenty of trading opportunities. I won't be picking a winner at these odds.
• Historically, the MCG has seen some big scores chased down, and with the two weaker bowling attacks on show another one could be on the cards, or at least offer some volatility during the second innings to trade. I'll be looking for this, especially if a score of 170+ is made in the first innings and a cheap lay of the defending side is available, but will be quite quick to trade out, preferring to lay again on the fall of a wicket, making lots of smaller trades rather than one or two big ones. 
• One market that looks to offer some value to me is the Batsman Matches offered by Bet365. The pairings for this are Finch and Gayle for the Renegades and Wright and Stoinis for the Stars. Finch and Stoinis are both up 2-1in these head-to-heads in previous games, but are the underdogs at 1.9 (vs the 1.8 offered on Gayle and Wright). 
• Luke Wright is yet to pass 18 this tournament, and the 20.5 run line with Ladbrokes looks a touch high for someone in such poor form, and unders at 1.83 is worth a look.

Lay the bowling side during the second innings and trade out quickly
Back Finch (vs Gayle) and Stones (vs Wright) in the Batsman Matches both at 1.90 with Bet365

Back Luke Wright Under 20.5 Runs with Ladbrokes

Perth Scorchers Vs Sydney Sixers - The WACA

• In the first (and probably last) superhero-themed T20 match, the Scorchers playing as Batman, host the Sixers, playing as Superman. It's not clear if the umpires will be Robin and the Joker, but I'll be very disappointed if not. 
• The Scorchers have recovered from their opening-day defeat to the Strikers to chalk up two comprehensive wins, and are strong favourites here, at 1.49, with the inconsistent Sixers at 3s. I think this is about right, as the Scorchers should win comfortably, but there's not a lot of value on offer. If they trade above 1.8 in play, and are in a recoverable position, I will look to get involved. 
• The WACA is historically a ground where sides batting second have struggled, winning just 38% of games, and so the side batting first here has a very good chance, but Perth have a justified reputation for a side able to defend low scores, so this could counteract the historical trend. 
• Michael Klinger has scores of 19, 53* and 90* so far this BBL, and is a batsman in form at the moment. His run line with Ladbrokes is 26.5, which looks good but may come in as other firms price this market up. I got 23.5 with Bet365 in his last game, and would steam into a similar line. Ladbrokes are offering 3.25 on Klinger being top Scorchers bat, which looks a very nice bet. 
• Having missed the first game through injury, Jason Behrendorff has taken 2/32 and 2/14 in the last two Scorchers games. The 4.5 Ladbrokes are offering on him to be Top Scorchers wicket taker is massive, and can be dutched with Andrew Tye, who is 4s, to create a 2.12 shot. Both will likely bowl their full quota, 40% of the innings, and have both performed well so far, so this looks good. 
• Another early run line that looks quite nice is Michael Lumb's, which seems a little short at 19.5, again with Ladbrokes. Lumb has had a good tournament so far, besides dropping a sitter in the first match, scoring 31, 15, 63, 4 and 34. With the WACA being a good batting surface traditionally, the 1.83 on him reaching 20 looks value to me. 

Look for opportunities to back the Scorchers at 1.8+
Back Michael Klinger for top Scorchers run scorer at 3.25 with Ladbrokes
Back Jason Behrendorff for top Scorchers wicket taker at 4.5 with Ladbrokes
Back Michael Lumb over 19.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes