Stars Vs Hurricanes Preview

Melbourne Cricket Ground  - 8:40 GMT 6th January 2016

• Looking at the ground stats for the MCG, there's not a lot that stands out; there's a perfect 50/50 distribution between winning when batting first and second, and not a huge influence of the toss on winning percentages. There have been some big chases though, with four of 179 or above. 
• Using the new BBL05 team stats page, we can see the Stars haven't yet batted first so far this tournament, where the Hurricanes have in four of their five games. Their average score when batting first is 170, the second highest in the competition, but their mean power play score is relatively low at 38, and so it might pay anyone looking to back runs to wait until after the first 6. 
• The Stars have struggled to put in the performances that would be expected from a side with the calibre of players that they have. The return of Kevin Pietersen after missing a game over christmas for the birth of his second child will be a boost, but he didn't look comfortable against the Renegades, making just 6. Luke Wright, after a poor start to the tournament hit an unbeaten 109 from 63 balls to guide the chase home, and his run line is a touch on the low side here. He's also worth backing for top bat, as the Hurricanes bowling doesn't offer a great deal, meaning wickets may be at a premium, and so the openers will likely see a lot of the bowling.
• The Hurricanes have been a fairly inconsistent side so far in BBL05, particularly in the batting department, with their top order failing in the last game after looking like they had regained some form. Purely based on this inconsistency, a small back of Dan Christian for top run scorer at 8.5 is worth taking on, as he has top scored on two occasions, chipping in with vital runs at number six. 

Back Luke Wright for top Stars run scorer at 4.5 with Ladbrokes 

Back Luke Wright over 21.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Dan Christian for top Hurricanes run scorer at 8.5 with PaddyPower 

Strikers Vs Scorchers Preview

Adelaide Oval - 5th January 2016

• The form side of the competition, the Scorchers, visit the Adelaide Oval to take on one of the more inconsistent sides in the Strikers, who claimed a win in the reverse fixture on 21st December. 
• The Strikers have won three of their four so far, beating the Stars, Sixers and Scorchers, while losing to the Thunder having been dismissed for just 117.  This Scorchers side, however, will be their biggest test so far, having been untroubled in their three games since the loss to the Strikers. The Pre-match 1.87 available on a very thin Betfair exchange market looks big on the Scorchers, with low 1.7s a fairer price.
• The Adelaide Oval has a slight bias towards the side batting first, with 58% of games being won by the defending side. Perth have a justified reputation as a side that can defend low totals, and so if they bat first there could be a good opportunity to lay the Strikers cheaply at the start of the chase. 
• The Scorchers have two of the best batsmen and two of the best bowlers for Australian conditions and I'm happy to keep them onside here. As per my preview of Perth's last game, dutching Beherendorff and Tye for top bowler at a touch above evens looks amazing value, and well worth taking, with the 4.33 on offer from Ladbrokes on Beherendorff to be top wicket taker for the Scorchers far too big.
• In their last three games, the Scorchers have lost just two wickets. Based on this and the excellent form of their openers, backing their overs and dutching for top bat is a play that I'm happy to take on here. 

Back the Scorchers at 1.87 on the Betfair Exchange 

Back Jason Beherendorff for top Scorchers bowler at 4.33 with Ladbrokes

Dutch Beherndorff and Tye for top Scorchers wicket taker for 2.08 with Ladbrokes

Back Michael Klinger over 24.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Shaun Marsh over 24.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Dutch Klinger and S Marsh for top Perth run scorer for 1.63 with Ladbrokes

Hurricanes Vs Renegades Preview

The Bellerive Oval, Hobart - 4th Jan 2016

• The Bellerive Oval in Hobart is one ground that has a strong bias towards defending totals, with the side batting second winning just 31% of games here. Immediately this offers a bias for trading this match, and there could be some excellent opportunities to oppose the chasing side, particularly if it's the Renegades, as their big-name batsmen are often overrated by the market, and could offer some excellent opportunities to lay them cheaply. 
• These big names also mean there can be a lot of value on offer in the top run scorer market, and one guy who I really like in the Renegades line-up is Cam White. White has looked in good touch so far in BBL05, but has only converted this into runs in the last game, making 54. Any continuation of his form in the last game makes the 5s on offer on him to be top run scorer with Ladbrokes a touch big, and value I'm happy to take. 
• George Bailey is another quietly consistent T20 player, and has scored 56*, 27, 40 and 62* this BBL. He has topped the Hurricanes batting in two of their four games so far this season, and can be backed at 5s to do the same here. 
• The match-up at the top of the Renegades order between Chris Gayle and Aaron Finch, two of the biggest names in world T20 cricket, is one that Finch has had the upper hand in this BBL, outscoring Gayle in three of the 4 games so far. Finch can be backed at 1.83 to continue this trend, and given his form so far should definitely be favourite here in what is currently a coin toss market. 

Keep the side batting first onside trading the match odds market

Back Cam White top Renegades run scorer at 5 with Ladbrokes

Back George Bailey top Hurricanes run scorer at 5 with Stan James

Back Aaron Finch (Vs Gayle) Batsman Match market at 1.83 with Bet365

Heat Vs Thunder Preview

• After an excellent start to the tournament, the Thunder lost their fourth game, away to the Hurricanes. The Heat have lost all four BBL05 games so far, with none of the games being particularly close. 
• Given the poor form of the Heat, the Thunder are strong favourites here, and best priced at 1.63. There's not much value here, as is often the case in pre-match odds, but I'll be looking to back them in-running as I really don't rate the Heat.
• The Heat's captain Chris Lynn has been the backbone of their batting so far, scoring 101, 75, 1 and 35, and being their top run scorer on all but one occasion. Backing him to continue his form looks good here.
• Thunder opener Jacques Kallis has had a tough tournament so far, scoring 0, 49*, 9 and 15. At 40 years old, Kallis is well and truly into the end of his career, and has struggled at this level. I'm happy to take him on here, as he's covered this run line just once so far this tournament. 

Back the Thunder at 1.8+ in-running, where they're in a good position

Back Chris Lynn over 23.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Chris Lynn top Heat Run Scorer at 4 with Stan James

Back Jacques Kallis under 21.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

2nd January BBL05 Previews

Melbourne Stars Vs Melbourne Renegades - The MCG

• The Melbourne derby see KP return for the Stars, as two sides with gun batting and poor bowling face off in what's likely to be a high-scoring affair. 
• The market has the Stars as slight favourites at 1.85, with the Renegades at 2.16, which seems fair to me before the off, although I can see this being a tight, swingy game, with plenty of trading opportunities. I won't be picking a winner at these odds.
• Historically, the MCG has seen some big scores chased down, and with the two weaker bowling attacks on show another one could be on the cards, or at least offer some volatility during the second innings to trade. I'll be looking for this, especially if a score of 170+ is made in the first innings and a cheap lay of the defending side is available, but will be quite quick to trade out, preferring to lay again on the fall of a wicket, making lots of smaller trades rather than one or two big ones. 
• One market that looks to offer some value to me is the Batsman Matches offered by Bet365. The pairings for this are Finch and Gayle for the Renegades and Wright and Stoinis for the Stars. Finch and Stoinis are both up 2-1in these head-to-heads in previous games, but are the underdogs at 1.9 (vs the 1.8 offered on Gayle and Wright). 
• Luke Wright is yet to pass 18 this tournament, and the 20.5 run line with Ladbrokes looks a touch high for someone in such poor form, and unders at 1.83 is worth a look.

Lay the bowling side during the second innings and trade out quickly
Back Finch (vs Gayle) and Stones (vs Wright) in the Batsman Matches both at 1.90 with Bet365

Back Luke Wright Under 20.5 Runs with Ladbrokes

Perth Scorchers Vs Sydney Sixers - The WACA

• In the first (and probably last) superhero-themed T20 match, the Scorchers playing as Batman, host the Sixers, playing as Superman. It's not clear if the umpires will be Robin and the Joker, but I'll be very disappointed if not. 
• The Scorchers have recovered from their opening-day defeat to the Strikers to chalk up two comprehensive wins, and are strong favourites here, at 1.49, with the inconsistent Sixers at 3s. I think this is about right, as the Scorchers should win comfortably, but there's not a lot of value on offer. If they trade above 1.8 in play, and are in a recoverable position, I will look to get involved. 
• The WACA is historically a ground where sides batting second have struggled, winning just 38% of games, and so the side batting first here has a very good chance, but Perth have a justified reputation for a side able to defend low scores, so this could counteract the historical trend. 
• Michael Klinger has scores of 19, 53* and 90* so far this BBL, and is a batsman in form at the moment. His run line with Ladbrokes is 26.5, which looks good but may come in as other firms price this market up. I got 23.5 with Bet365 in his last game, and would steam into a similar line. Ladbrokes are offering 3.25 on Klinger being top Scorchers bat, which looks a very nice bet. 
• Having missed the first game through injury, Jason Behrendorff has taken 2/32 and 2/14 in the last two Scorchers games. The 4.5 Ladbrokes are offering on him to be Top Scorchers wicket taker is massive, and can be dutched with Andrew Tye, who is 4s, to create a 2.12 shot. Both will likely bowl their full quota, 40% of the innings, and have both performed well so far, so this looks good. 
• Another early run line that looks quite nice is Michael Lumb's, which seems a little short at 19.5, again with Ladbrokes. Lumb has had a good tournament so far, besides dropping a sitter in the first match, scoring 31, 15, 63, 4 and 34. With the WACA being a good batting surface traditionally, the 1.83 on him reaching 20 looks value to me. 

Look for opportunities to back the Scorchers at 1.8+
Back Michael Klinger for top Scorchers run scorer at 3.25 with Ladbrokes
Back Jason Behrendorff for top Scorchers wicket taker at 4.5 with Ladbrokes
Back Michael Lumb over 19.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes