Stars Vs Hurricanes Preview

Melbourne Cricket Ground  - 8:40 GMT 6th January 2016

• Looking at the ground stats for the MCG, there's not a lot that stands out; there's a perfect 50/50 distribution between winning when batting first and second, and not a huge influence of the toss on winning percentages. There have been some big chases though, with four of 179 or above. 
• Using the new BBL05 team stats page, we can see the Stars haven't yet batted first so far this tournament, where the Hurricanes have in four of their five games. Their average score when batting first is 170, the second highest in the competition, but their mean power play score is relatively low at 38, and so it might pay anyone looking to back runs to wait until after the first 6. 
• The Stars have struggled to put in the performances that would be expected from a side with the calibre of players that they have. The return of Kevin Pietersen after missing a game over christmas for the birth of his second child will be a boost, but he didn't look comfortable against the Renegades, making just 6. Luke Wright, after a poor start to the tournament hit an unbeaten 109 from 63 balls to guide the chase home, and his run line is a touch on the low side here. He's also worth backing for top bat, as the Hurricanes bowling doesn't offer a great deal, meaning wickets may be at a premium, and so the openers will likely see a lot of the bowling.
• The Hurricanes have been a fairly inconsistent side so far in BBL05, particularly in the batting department, with their top order failing in the last game after looking like they had regained some form. Purely based on this inconsistency, a small back of Dan Christian for top run scorer at 8.5 is worth taking on, as he has top scored on two occasions, chipping in with vital runs at number six. 

Back Luke Wright for top Stars run scorer at 4.5 with Ladbrokes 

Back Luke Wright over 21.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Dan Christian for top Hurricanes run scorer at 8.5 with PaddyPower 

Strikers Vs Scorchers Review

• A disappointing performance from the Scorchers saw them concede top spot to the Strikers, taking just two wickets and leaking 174 runs. Rare failures from openers Klinger and Marsh and a weak display from the middle order meant that they collapsed to 138 all out in reply. 
• The Strikers put in a solid all-round performance here to beat the Scorchers for a second time this season, with Jayawaedene smashing a 37-ball 57 opening the batting, backed up by Travis Head, 51* (31), and Brad Hodge, 30* (15), who went big at the end after a slight stutter in the middle overs. 
• This was a tough game for me personally, as Aston Agar bowled just two overs, and picked up one of the wickets, beating Behrendorff to to wicket taker, and failures by the Perth openers meant this was a bit of a washout. Taking overs on the Strikers early on, and buying Travis Head's runs in-play meant that I finished flat for the game. 
• This Strikers batting looks very solid with Jayawardene opening and Head and Hodge coming in to accelerate in the middle order, and I'll be looking to keep them onside in their upcoming games. 

The Strikers play the Heat at the Gabba on 8th Jan

The Scorchers visit the Sydney Showground to take on the Thunder on 7th Jan

Strikers Vs Scorchers Preview

Adelaide Oval - 5th January 2016

• The form side of the competition, the Scorchers, visit the Adelaide Oval to take on one of the more inconsistent sides in the Strikers, who claimed a win in the reverse fixture on 21st December. 
• The Strikers have won three of their four so far, beating the Stars, Sixers and Scorchers, while losing to the Thunder having been dismissed for just 117.  This Scorchers side, however, will be their biggest test so far, having been untroubled in their three games since the loss to the Strikers. The Pre-match 1.87 available on a very thin Betfair exchange market looks big on the Scorchers, with low 1.7s a fairer price.
• The Adelaide Oval has a slight bias towards the side batting first, with 58% of games being won by the defending side. Perth have a justified reputation as a side that can defend low totals, and so if they bat first there could be a good opportunity to lay the Strikers cheaply at the start of the chase. 
• The Scorchers have two of the best batsmen and two of the best bowlers for Australian conditions and I'm happy to keep them onside here. As per my preview of Perth's last game, dutching Beherendorff and Tye for top bowler at a touch above evens looks amazing value, and well worth taking, with the 4.33 on offer from Ladbrokes on Beherendorff to be top wicket taker for the Scorchers far too big.
• In their last three games, the Scorchers have lost just two wickets. Based on this and the excellent form of their openers, backing their overs and dutching for top bat is a play that I'm happy to take on here. 

Back the Scorchers at 1.87 on the Betfair Exchange 

Back Jason Beherendorff for top Scorchers bowler at 4.33 with Ladbrokes

Dutch Beherndorff and Tye for top Scorchers wicket taker for 2.08 with Ladbrokes

Back Michael Klinger over 24.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Shaun Marsh over 24.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Dutch Klinger and S Marsh for top Perth run scorer for 1.63 with Ladbrokes

Hurricanes Vs Renegades Review

• A comprehensive performance from the Renegades, restricting the Hurricanes to just 140 and chasing this down with six overs to spare. 
• The Hurricanes top order struggled here, with three of the top five scoring five runs between them. A quick fire 58 from pinch hitter Dan Christian batting at six got the Hurricanes to a respectable total, but the power of the Renegades batting line up proved too much for the Hurricanes bowlers. With the fragility of the Hurricanes top order, a small back of Christian for top run scorer could be worthwhile.
• Finch again outscored his opening partner Gayle, but given the upcoming white ball internationals for Australia and Gayle's injudicious comments during his pre-match interview this could be the last time we see these two batting together this BBL. Hopefully not, and we get another chance to back Finch to beat Gayle in the head-to-head. 
• Cam White didn't get much of a chance to challenge for top run scorer, but looked solid yet again scoring an unbeaten 15 to close out the game. 

The Hurricanes play the Stars at the MCG on 6th Jan

The Renegades host the Stars in the second Melbourne derby at Docklands stadium on 9th Jan

Hurricanes Vs Renegades Preview

The Bellerive Oval, Hobart - 4th Jan 2016

• The Bellerive Oval in Hobart is one ground that has a strong bias towards defending totals, with the side batting second winning just 31% of games here. Immediately this offers a bias for trading this match, and there could be some excellent opportunities to oppose the chasing side, particularly if it's the Renegades, as their big-name batsmen are often overrated by the market, and could offer some excellent opportunities to lay them cheaply. 
• These big names also mean there can be a lot of value on offer in the top run scorer market, and one guy who I really like in the Renegades line-up is Cam White. White has looked in good touch so far in BBL05, but has only converted this into runs in the last game, making 54. Any continuation of his form in the last game makes the 5s on offer on him to be top run scorer with Ladbrokes a touch big, and value I'm happy to take. 
• George Bailey is another quietly consistent T20 player, and has scored 56*, 27, 40 and 62* this BBL. He has topped the Hurricanes batting in two of their four games so far this season, and can be backed at 5s to do the same here. 
• The match-up at the top of the Renegades order between Chris Gayle and Aaron Finch, two of the biggest names in world T20 cricket, is one that Finch has had the upper hand in this BBL, outscoring Gayle in three of the 4 games so far. Finch can be backed at 1.83 to continue this trend, and given his form so far should definitely be favourite here in what is currently a coin toss market. 

Keep the side batting first onside trading the match odds market

Back Cam White top Renegades run scorer at 5 with Ladbrokes

Back George Bailey top Hurricanes run scorer at 5 with Stan James

Back Aaron Finch (Vs Gayle) Batsman Match market at 1.83 with Bet365

Heat Vs Thunder Preview

• After an excellent start to the tournament, the Thunder lost their fourth game, away to the Hurricanes. The Heat have lost all four BBL05 games so far, with none of the games being particularly close. 
• Given the poor form of the Heat, the Thunder are strong favourites here, and best priced at 1.63. There's not much value here, as is often the case in pre-match odds, but I'll be looking to back them in-running as I really don't rate the Heat.
• The Heat's captain Chris Lynn has been the backbone of their batting so far, scoring 101, 75, 1 and 35, and being their top run scorer on all but one occasion. Backing him to continue his form looks good here.
• Thunder opener Jacques Kallis has had a tough tournament so far, scoring 0, 49*, 9 and 15. At 40 years old, Kallis is well and truly into the end of his career, and has struggled at this level. I'm happy to take him on here, as he's covered this run line just once so far this tournament. 

Back the Thunder at 1.8+ in-running, where they're in a good position

Back Chris Lynn over 23.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Back Chris Lynn top Heat Run Scorer at 4 with Stan James

Back Jacques Kallis under 21.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Stars Vs Renegades Review

• An unbeaten 63-ball 109 from Luke Wright saw the Stars chase 161 with five and a half overs to spare to clinch the Melbourne derby in front of a crowd of 80,000.
• Having had a poor tournament so far, Wrights innings was fairly costly for me, as I was on his unders, and back Stoinis in the Batsman Match market. No major damage, and the chasing-bias flagged up in my preview meant I more than made up for it trading the Match Odds market. 
• The Renegades would have hoped to have made a lot more than 161, but wickets at regular intervals cost them, as did losing two set bats going into the last 4 overs. This wasn't a great batting performance against what was a fairly average Stars bowling attack. 
• Cam White made 54 from 39 balls, claiming top Renegades bat, having looked good throughout the tournament without converting this into runs. With the stellar names in the Renegades side, he's often overpriced in the Top Runscorer market, and is worth backing in future.
• Another bet I like is the Batsman Match Market with Bet365, who had Aaron Finch as underdog against Chris Gayle. In the four Renegades games so far, Finch has outscored Gayle on three occasions, and for me this should be the other way around, and I'll happily take this value in future games. 

The Stars host the Hurricanes on 6th Jan at the MCG

The Renegades visit Hobart to take on the Hurricanes on 4th Jan

2nd January BBL05 Previews

Melbourne Stars Vs Melbourne Renegades - The MCG

• The Melbourne derby see KP return for the Stars, as two sides with gun batting and poor bowling face off in what's likely to be a high-scoring affair. 
• The market has the Stars as slight favourites at 1.85, with the Renegades at 2.16, which seems fair to me before the off, although I can see this being a tight, swingy game, with plenty of trading opportunities. I won't be picking a winner at these odds.
• Historically, the MCG has seen some big scores chased down, and with the two weaker bowling attacks on show another one could be on the cards, or at least offer some volatility during the second innings to trade. I'll be looking for this, especially if a score of 170+ is made in the first innings and a cheap lay of the defending side is available, but will be quite quick to trade out, preferring to lay again on the fall of a wicket, making lots of smaller trades rather than one or two big ones. 
• One market that looks to offer some value to me is the Batsman Matches offered by Bet365. The pairings for this are Finch and Gayle for the Renegades and Wright and Stoinis for the Stars. Finch and Stoinis are both up 2-1in these head-to-heads in previous games, but are the underdogs at 1.9 (vs the 1.8 offered on Gayle and Wright). 
• Luke Wright is yet to pass 18 this tournament, and the 20.5 run line with Ladbrokes looks a touch high for someone in such poor form, and unders at 1.83 is worth a look.

Lay the bowling side during the second innings and trade out quickly
Back Finch (vs Gayle) and Stones (vs Wright) in the Batsman Matches both at 1.90 with Bet365

Back Luke Wright Under 20.5 Runs with Ladbrokes

Perth Scorchers Vs Sydney Sixers - The WACA

• In the first (and probably last) superhero-themed T20 match, the Scorchers playing as Batman, host the Sixers, playing as Superman. It's not clear if the umpires will be Robin and the Joker, but I'll be very disappointed if not. 
• The Scorchers have recovered from their opening-day defeat to the Strikers to chalk up two comprehensive wins, and are strong favourites here, at 1.49, with the inconsistent Sixers at 3s. I think this is about right, as the Scorchers should win comfortably, but there's not a lot of value on offer. If they trade above 1.8 in play, and are in a recoverable position, I will look to get involved. 
• The WACA is historically a ground where sides batting second have struggled, winning just 38% of games, and so the side batting first here has a very good chance, but Perth have a justified reputation for a side able to defend low scores, so this could counteract the historical trend. 
• Michael Klinger has scores of 19, 53* and 90* so far this BBL, and is a batsman in form at the moment. His run line with Ladbrokes is 26.5, which looks good but may come in as other firms price this market up. I got 23.5 with Bet365 in his last game, and would steam into a similar line. Ladbrokes are offering 3.25 on Klinger being top Scorchers bat, which looks a very nice bet. 
• Having missed the first game through injury, Jason Behrendorff has taken 2/32 and 2/14 in the last two Scorchers games. The 4.5 Ladbrokes are offering on him to be Top Scorchers wicket taker is massive, and can be dutched with Andrew Tye, who is 4s, to create a 2.12 shot. Both will likely bowl their full quota, 40% of the innings, and have both performed well so far, so this looks good. 
• Another early run line that looks quite nice is Michael Lumb's, which seems a little short at 19.5, again with Ladbrokes. Lumb has had a good tournament so far, besides dropping a sitter in the first match, scoring 31, 15, 63, 4 and 34. With the WACA being a good batting surface traditionally, the 1.83 on him reaching 20 looks value to me. 

Look for opportunities to back the Scorchers at 1.8+
Back Michael Klinger for top Scorchers run scorer at 3.25 with Ladbrokes
Back Jason Behrendorff for top Scorchers wicket taker at 4.5 with Ladbrokes
Back Michael Lumb over 19.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Strikers Vs Sixers Review

• A century from Travis Head saw the Strikers chase down 177 with three balls to spare after the Sixers looked home and hosed, defending 51 from the last three overs.
• Sean Abbot was the weak link in the Sixers attach, conceding 27 from the 18th over including five boundaries. The rest of the Sixers attack was fairly passable, but Abbot served up hit-able filth to Head, who smashed it to all parts.
• This was after a similarly poor bowling display from the Strikers seamers, who couldn't contain the Sixers despite picking up regular wickets. 
• This game underlines why betting on these sides is difficult, as they're both very unpredictable, and can be anywhere between amazing and awful, often in the same game. Keep stakes small and green up wherever possible would be my advice for their upcoming games.

The Strikers host the Scorchers at the Adelaide Oval on 5th Jan

The Sixers visit the Scorchers at the WACA on 2nd Jan

Heat Vs Hurricanes Review

• A high-scoring affair between two of the worst sides in the tournament, with the Hurricanes' 194 big enough to defend, despite a 50-ball hundred from Heat skipper Chris Lynn. 
• A solid all-round batting display from the Hurricanes, with all of their top five making 25 or more, and Dan Christian finishing off the innings with some immense power hitting, making 56 from 24 balls. 
• Failures from both the Heat's openers against a fairly mediocre bowling side, based on this I'll be looking to back unders on both of their run lines in future games, as Pierson looks out of his depth and Lendl Simmons is still on the plane. 

The Hurricanes take on the Thunder on 1st Jan at Hobart

The Heat play the Thunder on 3rd Jan at The Gabba

Thunder Vs Strikers Review

• A solid win for the Thunder, who have put last season's disappointment behind them, restricting the Strikers to just 117 and chasing down for the loss of 3 wickets in 16.5 overs. 
• Andre Russell was the star of the show yet again, taking two wickets and making 17 runs. Backing overs on his player performance points, when the line is around 40.5, is looking like a solid money-maker this season, as he will bowl 4 overs every game and contribute with the bat as well. Kallis seems to have hit his straps as well after a slow start, bowling well and steering the chase home. 
• The Strikers put in a poor performance today, with very few meaningful contributions with the bat, and poor management of the bowlers from captain Brad Hodge. Last seasons reliability seems to have gone, and inconsistency is the theme this year, making them a difficult side to bet on. 

The Thunder play the Hurricanes on 1st Jan at Hobart

The Strikers host the Sixers at the Adelaide Oval on Dec 31st

Scorchers Vs Heat Review

• An impressive performance from the Scorchers, restricting the Heat to just 117 before chasing them down for the loss of just one wicket. Following their initial defeat against the Strikers, this was a convincing win for a side I expect to challenge for the title. 
• Three wickets for Andrew Tye, and two for Behrendorff on return form injury in what was a terrible batting performance from the Heat, bar skipper Chris Lynn, who scored an unbeaten 75. Lynn's overs are worth looking at in every Heat innings, and on this performance backing him for top batsman every game should be a money-maker. 
• Michael Klinger carried his bat for 53 in the chase, and looks to be in his usual excellent form for the Scorchers. Backing his overs run line should prove profitable, particularly against weaker bowling attacks. 

The Scorchers visit Docklands stadium, Melbourne to face the Renegades on 30th Dec

The Heat take on the Hurricanes on the 29th at the Gabba

Renegades Vs Sixers Review

• Sixers chase down 172 to beat the Renegades, underlining how thin the Renegades bowling is, and how much I underestimated the Sixers.
• The Renegades batting was fairly solid, but slowed up towards the middle of the innings before Tom Beaton smashed 41 off 23 balls at the death to put on what looked like a defendable total. 
• Dwayne Bravo's player performance line was 35.5. For me this was far too low, given that he bats at five and bowls a full quota. His 45 from 29 balls covered this line with room to spare before he'd bowled a ball, and a similar line in the Renegades next game would be something I'd be piling into.
• Another play that should bear fruit over the course of the tournament is unders on Brad Haddin's run line. Haddin's been given free reign to free his arms from ball one by the Sixers, and should have been out on two of his three ball one's so far, nicking off today and surviving a plumb LBW in game one. With this approach against decent bowling attacks, Haddin will be doing very well to cover 25+ runs more often than not. 
• The Renegades bowling struggles here indicate that defending totals will be a real problem for them, and I'll be looking for a way to oppose them in similar situations going forwards, having been burned a little here backing them to defend. 

The Renegades take on the defending champions the Scorchers at the Emirates on Dec 30th.

The Sixers host the Stars at the SCG on 27th Dec.

Hurricanes Vs Heat Review

• A much-improved showing from the Hurricanes top order on a belter of a pitch saw them put on 184 for the loss of just three wickets, including 87 from 58 balls from skipper Tim Paine, and 40s from Sangakkara and Bailey.
• This firms up my belief that the Heat have comfortably the worst bowling attack in the BBL, and their batting is not much better, particularly at 3, 4 and 5. I'll be opposing them as much as possible going forwards, as they'll be lucky to win a game this year. Their next game against Perth could be carnage. 
• Hobart weren't really tested here, and I'm hoping that the market overestimates them in their upcoming games, as I think they're fairly poor as well, and will struggle to match the other sides in the competition. 

The Hurricanes play the Heat in their next game on 29th Dec at the Gabba

The Heat face a daunting trip to the WACA to face defending champs the Scorchers on Boxing day

Scorchers Vs Strikers Review

• A disappointing start to the campaign from the Scorchers, limping to 151 having been in a strong position and then failing to defend. Conversely, a strong showing from an underrated Strikers side. 
• As with the Stars, the market strongly overvalued Perth's chances throughout the game due to their reputation as excellent defenders of low totals. With Nathan Coulter-Nile dislocating his shoulder fielding here, and Jason Behrendorff out injured, this reputation is probably unjustified,  and going against it could prove a good money-maker, as it was today. Perth started last season in almost identical fashion, before putting together a string of wins, so look for them to bounce back against a weak Heat side next up.
• Like last season, Adelaide seem to be quietly a very strong side, and I'll be looking for opportunities to back them going forwards. 

The Scorchers take on the Heat on Boxing day at the WACA

The Strikers play Sydney Thunder on the 28th Dec at the Sydney Showground

Sixers Vs Hurricanes Review

• A much-improved Sixers performance after their disappointing turnout against the Thunder in match one, putting on a big score and defending comfortably, bowling the Hurricanes out for just 91.
• Most of the Sixers top order contributed here in what was a strong batting display led by Brad Haddin, although this was against what is probably the weakest bowling attack in the BBL.
• The only contribution from Hobart's batting was captain George Bailey's 62 from 45 balls, with 7 extras, the next highest score was 5. All in all a woeful display from the Hurricanes. Backing Bailey's overs run line could be a good earner this tournament.

The Sixers visit the Renegades at Docklands Stadium on the 23rd

The Hurricanes take on the Heat at Hobart with both sides looking to bounce back from poor starts on the 22nd

Strikers Vs Stars Review

• Similarly to last years competition, the Stars were overrated by the market, and were too short for most of the game. No side had chased a score as big as Adelaide's at this ground, and if the Stars were defending I'd expect them to be priced around 1.4-1.5, where the Strikers were 1.6-1.7. Given this, and the fact their next opposition the Thunder were fairly underrated in their last game, taking on the Stars could be a good strategy. 
• As expected, the Strikers were fairly solid. Despite losing three early wickets, veteran Brad Hodge and Alex Ross shored up the middle order, putting on a 110 run partnership. Ross was in great touch, and getting on his run lines in the next game will be something I'll look at. 

The Stars play this Sunday, 20th Dec, taking on the Thunder at the MCG

The Strikers play defending champions the Scorchers at the WACA on the 21st Dec

Thunder Vs Sixers Review

• First thing to note from this game was how poor the Sixers were. Missing Starc, Smith, Lee, etc from last season, they struggled to compete against the Thunder, who have improved from last seasons poor showing. Opposing the Sixers going forward should be a good strategy. 
• In terms of players, Nick Maddinson for the Sixers looked very out of touch with the bat, and perhaps the pressure of captaincy is taking it's toll. I'll be looking to back under in his run line going forwards. I'll be taking a similar approach with Brad Haddin, who was plumb LBW first ball of the innings but not given, and stated afterwards that his job is to get the innings off to a flyer. Hopefully he'll carry on swinging from ball one, and will end up giving his wicket away cheaply.
• For the Thunder, playing unders on Kallis' run line might also be a goer, as he generally scores quite slowly nowadays. Andre Russell, or Dre-Russ as he apparently likes to be known, was not given much of a chance with the bat, facing just 5 balls, but picked up 3 wickets for 13 with the ball, bowling with some good pace and bounce. Most of Cricket Twitter were on his Player Performance Points at over 19.5 with Bet365, which was misquoted and adjusted to 40.5. He ended up beating this line easily, and if we see similar again in the next game I'll be steaming in on the overs. 

The Sixers play the Hurricanes on Sunday 20th Dec. at the SCG

The Thunder also play on Sunday, taking on the Stars at the MCG

BBL Preview

Big Bash League 2015-16 Preview

On 17th December, the fifth Big Bash League, Australia's T20 competition starts with a Sydney derby, pitting the Thunder against the Sixers. This is by far and away my favourite T20 league for a number of reasons; all games are televised, the sides are excellent and games tend to be competitive. The only slight downside is Damien Flemming on comms, but the mute button soon fixes that.

Looking ahead to this year's competition, I take a look at the squads for each of the franchises to give some context to the upcoming games, and also assess where I think there might be some value in the ante post markets. The FTE rating given to each side is an assessment of how I see their strength in batting, bowling, squad depth and ability to win games, and gives an indication of how I see each side relative to the others in the competition.

As with most T20 leagues, sides can very drastically from year to year, so I'd advise being cautious with staking in the early part of the tournament until you get more of a feel for how sides are performing this time around.

Adelaide Strikers

The Strikers had an excellent BBL04, winning six of their seven regular season games before being blown away by the Sixers in the first semi-final, bowled out for 94 chasing 181. For a side of relatively unknown players to have the best regular season record of the competition shows just how tough to beat the Strikers were last year, but the choke in the semi indicates that they didn't cope well with the pressure in the knockout game. The appointment of Jason Gillespie as coach may go some way to address this, but the Strikers squad is missing some key player this time around. From last season, the Strikers have lost Ryan ten Doeschate, Johan Botha, Shaun Tait and Adam Zampa, all experienced players and the side looks weaker for these losses. Kieran Pollard's knee injury sustained during the South African Ram Slam T20 competition has deprived the Strikers of his services in BBL05, with their two overseas players now being Mahela Jayawardene and Adil Rasheed, who is likely to miss some of the tournament due to international commitments with England's white ball sides. Overall, I'm expecting the Strikers to be slightly weaker than last season, as I feel they have lost some key players. I won't be opposing them just on this, however, and will be watching their early games closely to see if this is the case. 

FTE Rating: 6/10


Brisbane Heat 

Last seasons whipping-boys, the Brisbane Heat will be hoping that a much-changed squad will put in a stronger showing this time around. The addition of Alex Doolan and Lendl Simmons should strengthen their batting, newly appointed captain Chris Lynn expected to go big after a strong showing in the 50-over Matador Cup, and Ben Cutting is capable of smashing quick runs down the order. Where the Heat look weak, however, is their bowling unit, which looks the weakest in the competition despite the addition of Samuel Badree. Given this, I can't see them improving much from last season, and will be looking to oppose them first up against the Renegades, and as much as possible in their later games if this goes to plan. 

FTE Rating: 4/10


Hobart Hurricanes 

The Hurricanes, having won just three of their eight games last season, put in a disappointing performance given the strength of their squad. This time around, their squad, with the additions of Dan Christian, Shaun Tait and Kumar Sangakkara, looks a little stronger than last year, with a solid batting line-up and what should be a competitive bowling unit. The three additions previously mentioned should add plenty of experience, and with George Bailey and Darren Sammy returning, the Hurricanes will hope to draw on this experience to close out games. Going into the early games, I'm neutral on the Hurricanes, and will be watching their opener against the Sixers on Saturday closely before forming an opinion.

FTE Rating: 5.5/10


Melbourne Renegades

Another side who failed to live up to expectation last season, the Renegades have bolstered their squad with arguably the two biggest overseas names in the competition in West Indians Chris Gayle and Dwayne Bravo, and will be looking for a significant improvement on BBL04. Power certainly won't be an issue for the Renegades batting line-up, with big-hitters Gayle and Bravo joining captain Aaron Finch. The capture of Xavier Doherty from Hobart could prove to be key, as the left arm spinner has performed very well for the Tasmanian side, with 24 career Big Bash wickets, and should support the Renegades impressive seam attack well. Overall, the Renegades have a very strong squad, and, assuming they perform to their capabilities, could be in with a shout of making the semi-finals.

FTE Rating: 6.5/10


Melbourne Stars

The Stars, with their plethora of big-names, were an excellent side to oppose during their early BBL04 games, as despite their undoubted quality, they were incapable winning  until dismissing the Renegades for just 57 kick-started their season. They eventually made the Semi-finals, losing to the champions Scorchers. Losing Cam White and Jackson Bird in the off-season would have been a blow, but in Evan Glubis, Adam Zampa and Ben Hilfenhaus they have some more than capable replacements. For my money, the Stars have one of the strongest sides in the competition, and if they can address the inability to win games they suffered from last year, and finally get through a semi-final, they have an excellent chance of taking home the title.

FTE Rating: 7.5/10


Perth Scorchers

Defending BBL champions, the Scorchers come into this years tournament having made very few changes to their playing squad, letting Yasir Arafat and Hilton Cartwright go, and bringing in David Willey. International commitments for a number of key players could hinder the Scorchers this time around, and with injury concerns to opening bowler Jason Behrendorff and Simon Mackin, the Scorchers will have to rely on the depth of their squad this time around. That being said, this side have quality in spades, with very few weak links throughout the squad, and look good to continue where they left of last season and challenge for the title this time around. 

FTE Rating: 8.5/10


Sydney Sixers

Having reached the final of BBL04, the Sixers, like the Scorchers, have made very few changes to their side this time around. The additions of Jackson Bird and Johan Botha reinforce a squad that will loose three key players to the Australian international team, and will be without gun bowler Mitchell Starc due to injury. Despite this, the Sixers still look strong and will be looking to emulate last seasons form, and I expect them to reach the semi-finals here. With the absentees, however, they are left with a relatively small squad, and should they suffer from further injuries could struggle to find quality replacements.

FTE Rating: 6.5/10


Sydney Thunder

After a disappointing showing in BBL04, winning just two of their games, the Thunder return with a much-changed squad looking to give a better account of themselves. Despite the changes, the Thunder squad does still look weak to me, particularly in their batting. In Mike Hussey and Jacques Kallis they have two greats of the game, but also two guys who are both pushing 40 and who's best years are behind them. Andre Russell is an excellent signing, and if he continues his Ram Slam form should provide plenty of middle-order firepower, provided he is given enough of a chance, and will also reinforce what is a relatively good bowling line-up. Gurinder Sandhu had an excellent BBL04, and was subsequently picked for the Australian ODI side. If he bowls to his capabilities he should walk the Thunder top bowler market, although the only price currently (2.88 at Stan James) is a little short, and should get bigger once other bookies price this up. 

FTE Rating: 5/10

Outright Tips

Perth Scorchers at 6 with Sporting Bet

As you can see from the write-up above, I make Perth the strongest side here, and will therefore be backing them in the outright market. The Stars and the Renegades both look strong, but there are question marks over both sides for me, and so I'm backing Perth to retain their crown. 

Looking at the top bat/bowler markets, I've gone for players who will play most, if not all of the games, as there are international schedules for the latter part of the tournament which will see some of the bigger names leave. 

Top Tournament Batsman

Kumar Sangakkara at 15 (widely available) Sangakkara will be opening for the Hurricanes, and comes into the tournament in excellent form. 15s is a decent price and well worth taking. 

David Willey at 101 with TitanBet Willey will be opening for the Scorchers, and so should see plenty of action. His 100 from 40 against Sussex in the English summer showed what he's capable of, and 101 is just completely wrong. Snap it up before it disappears. 

Jordan Silk at 151 with Betfair This is a bit of a long shot, but I really like Silk as a batsman, and he scored quickly coming in down the order last season. With the Sixers having quite a thin squad he could be given more of a chance this time around, and at 150/1 is worth a poke. 

Top Tournament Bowler

Andrew Tye at 26 (widely available) With injury concerns around other Scorchers bowlers, Tye should get plenty of overs under his belt, and has had a decent 50-over summer so far. He was fourth in the wicket takers list for BBL04, so looks good value at  25/1.

Sean Abbot at 31 with Paddy Power Abbot bowls with blistering pace, guile and plenty of variations, and will bowl his full quota in every game. 30/1 from Paddys is far too big here, with the 25/1 elsewhere more accurate.

Johan Botha at 51 with Stan James Another long shot, but Botha impressed last year, picking up wickets and keeping it tight in terms of runs. I think this is worth a small go, as the price seems a bit on the big side. 

Trading T20 Games

With the T20 Blast Finals Day coming up on Saturday, I though I'd share how I approach trading T20 games, and give you an idea of how to use the stats on the ground that I've published on the blog.

Fail to Prepare, Prepare to Fail

Firstly, knowing what games are coming up and where, I will do my research. I keep a database  of T20 games where major tournaments are played, and this is my first port of call. I've published my stats for Edgbaston ahead of Saturday's games so you can see what I look at. As an example, from these stats you can see that sides batting second are at a slight disadvantage, with just 44% of chases being successful, and that this drops to just 21% where sides are chasing over 150. We can also see that first innings scores of 180+ are relatively rare, having occurred in one of every five games so far, on average.

With preparation on the ground done, I'll now look at the sides, looking at the relative strengths of batting line-ups and bowling attacks, who can put on big total, and who can defend lower totals, who likes chasing, who does well when batting first, etc.

I'll put all of this down on a notepad, and have this in front of me during games, as T20 can be fast and furious, and having everything written down means I can focus on the market when I need to, and not have to flail around looking at stats.

Watching and Waiting

During the game, with all the action going on it can be tempting to jump into positions early on. It took me a while to get out of this habit, but I'm glad I did. How I approach trading the games now is to look at the runs lines during the first innings, and not enter any positions until after the six over power-play. Looking at the stats page again, you'll see a table at the bottom of the page which gives average totals when a certain number of wickets have been lost in the power-play, and this is where I'll start. I'll also pay very close attention to how the pitch is playing, if it's coming onto the bat nicely, if cutters are sticking in the pitch, indicating batting will be difficult against spinners later on, how quick the outfield is, etc, and try to assess how easy batting will be. I'll then look to take on small positions in the runs lines market, and if I see what I think is some good value, I might take a larger position, but generally I'll keep things tight here.

During the second innings I'll look at the match odds, using all the information on past games and from the first innings to assess who I think is more likely to win the game. T20 can be so unpredictable, so I'll be very active in terms of limiting liability where I can. This unpredictability can also provide good low-risk/high-reward opportunities, such as batting sides going well, and trading at low prices, were you know chasing sides struggle, offering a good opportunity to lay them.

Thinking Longer-term

This might be an obvious point to many, but it is worth reiterating. You will not win every trade, and you will be wrong at times. Giving yourself the best opportunity to be right is all you can do, and at the end of the day we are dealing with uncertainty. Recognising this, and focussing on becoming consistent in the longer-term, and staying in control and sticking to plans for individual games, will be a big factor in successful trading.