Updated FTE Ratings for BBL05 sides

With BBL05 just over half way through, I though it would be useful to update the FTE Ratings that I gave each side prior to the tournament based on their performances so far. I'm not going to go into too much detail on these, as they're essentially a score out of ten based on my assessment of the teams quality. Perth Scorchers are still top of the list, and the Heat still bottom.  The Thunder are the biggest movers, although they have played the weaker sides in the competition so far.

Perth Scorchers 9/10 (Previously 8.5/10)
Melbourne Stars 7/10 (Previously 7.5/10)
Melbourne Renegades 6/10 (Previously 6.5/10)
Adelaide Strikers 6/10 (Previously 6/10)
Sydney Thunder 6/10 (Previously 5/10)
Sydney Sixers 5.5/10 (Previously 6.5/10)
Hobart Hurricanes 5/10 (Previously 5.5/10)
Brisbane Heat 3.5/10 (Previously 4/10)

Scorchers Vs Sixers Review

• Another clinical performance from the Scorchers saw them restrict the Sixers to just 112 from their 20 overs, chasing this down within 15 overs for the loss of just one wicket.
• The only Sixers batsman to look remotely comfortable was Michael Lumb, who made 47 on 45 balls, and covered the overs line tipped in my preview within the first five overs. Lumb has quietly had a very good tournament so far, scoring 34, 4, 63, 15, 31 and 47, covering his run line in 4 of 6 (66.6%) innings. With little batting around him, backing Lumb for Top Batsman in the Sixers upcoming games, and to cover his run line should have a positive expectancy.
• The Scorchers were excellent all over the park today, with three strike bowlers getting wickets, Willey leading the pack with 3/22, AJ Tye 2/22 and Behrendorff 2/24. Dutching Behrendorff and Tye for top bowler at 2.12 was a bad beat, with Nic Maddinson lollypopping a simple catch off Willeys bowling to gift him a wicket.
• Lumping on the Scorchers in their upcoming games will make you plenty, they're in excellent form. They're still available at 3.6 to win the competition, and anyone backing them at 6 before the tournament, as tipped in my preview, is sitting very pretty on this.  

The Scorchers visit the Adelaide Oval to take on the Strikers on 5th Jan

The Sixers play the Heat at the SCG on 10th Jan

2nd January BBL05 Previews

Melbourne Stars Vs Melbourne Renegades - The MCG

• The Melbourne derby see KP return for the Stars, as two sides with gun batting and poor bowling face off in what's likely to be a high-scoring affair. 
• The market has the Stars as slight favourites at 1.85, with the Renegades at 2.16, which seems fair to me before the off, although I can see this being a tight, swingy game, with plenty of trading opportunities. I won't be picking a winner at these odds.
• Historically, the MCG has seen some big scores chased down, and with the two weaker bowling attacks on show another one could be on the cards, or at least offer some volatility during the second innings to trade. I'll be looking for this, especially if a score of 170+ is made in the first innings and a cheap lay of the defending side is available, but will be quite quick to trade out, preferring to lay again on the fall of a wicket, making lots of smaller trades rather than one or two big ones. 
• One market that looks to offer some value to me is the Batsman Matches offered by Bet365. The pairings for this are Finch and Gayle for the Renegades and Wright and Stoinis for the Stars. Finch and Stoinis are both up 2-1in these head-to-heads in previous games, but are the underdogs at 1.9 (vs the 1.8 offered on Gayle and Wright). 
• Luke Wright is yet to pass 18 this tournament, and the 20.5 run line with Ladbrokes looks a touch high for someone in such poor form, and unders at 1.83 is worth a look.

Lay the bowling side during the second innings and trade out quickly
Back Finch (vs Gayle) and Stones (vs Wright) in the Batsman Matches both at 1.90 with Bet365

Back Luke Wright Under 20.5 Runs with Ladbrokes

Perth Scorchers Vs Sydney Sixers - The WACA

• In the first (and probably last) superhero-themed T20 match, the Scorchers playing as Batman, host the Sixers, playing as Superman. It's not clear if the umpires will be Robin and the Joker, but I'll be very disappointed if not. 
• The Scorchers have recovered from their opening-day defeat to the Strikers to chalk up two comprehensive wins, and are strong favourites here, at 1.49, with the inconsistent Sixers at 3s. I think this is about right, as the Scorchers should win comfortably, but there's not a lot of value on offer. If they trade above 1.8 in play, and are in a recoverable position, I will look to get involved. 
• The WACA is historically a ground where sides batting second have struggled, winning just 38% of games, and so the side batting first here has a very good chance, but Perth have a justified reputation for a side able to defend low scores, so this could counteract the historical trend. 
• Michael Klinger has scores of 19, 53* and 90* so far this BBL, and is a batsman in form at the moment. His run line with Ladbrokes is 26.5, which looks good but may come in as other firms price this market up. I got 23.5 with Bet365 in his last game, and would steam into a similar line. Ladbrokes are offering 3.25 on Klinger being top Scorchers bat, which looks a very nice bet. 
• Having missed the first game through injury, Jason Behrendorff has taken 2/32 and 2/14 in the last two Scorchers games. The 4.5 Ladbrokes are offering on him to be Top Scorchers wicket taker is massive, and can be dutched with Andrew Tye, who is 4s, to create a 2.12 shot. Both will likely bowl their full quota, 40% of the innings, and have both performed well so far, so this looks good. 
• Another early run line that looks quite nice is Michael Lumb's, which seems a little short at 19.5, again with Ladbrokes. Lumb has had a good tournament so far, besides dropping a sitter in the first match, scoring 31, 15, 63, 4 and 34. With the WACA being a good batting surface traditionally, the 1.83 on him reaching 20 looks value to me. 

Look for opportunities to back the Scorchers at 1.8+
Back Michael Klinger for top Scorchers run scorer at 3.25 with Ladbrokes
Back Jason Behrendorff for top Scorchers wicket taker at 4.5 with Ladbrokes
Back Michael Lumb over 19.5 runs at 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Strikers Vs Sixers Review

• A century from Travis Head saw the Strikers chase down 177 with three balls to spare after the Sixers looked home and hosed, defending 51 from the last three overs.
• Sean Abbot was the weak link in the Sixers attach, conceding 27 from the 18th over including five boundaries. The rest of the Sixers attack was fairly passable, but Abbot served up hit-able filth to Head, who smashed it to all parts.
• This was after a similarly poor bowling display from the Strikers seamers, who couldn't contain the Sixers despite picking up regular wickets. 
• This game underlines why betting on these sides is difficult, as they're both very unpredictable, and can be anywhere between amazing and awful, often in the same game. Keep stakes small and green up wherever possible would be my advice for their upcoming games.

The Strikers host the Scorchers at the Adelaide Oval on 5th Jan

The Sixers visit the Scorchers at the WACA on 2nd Jan

Sixers Vs Stars Review

• A solid win for the Stars, restricting the Sixers to 139 despite some middle-order resistance from Henriques and Silk, and chasing down with eight balls and five wickets to spare.
• Brad Haddin scored just 2, making backing his unders run line, something I've discussed in every Sixers review here, look more and more like an absolute banker this tournament. 
• Glenn Maxwell made 50 for the Stars in a return to form, accompanied by a 50 from Peter Hanscome and an unbeaten 24 from skipper David Hussey. With their middle-order firing like this, the Stars are looking strong, although I have my doubts about the quality of the Sixers, and will be watching their next game closely. 
• Luke Wright seems to be playing a similar role to Brad Haddin, going hard at the top of the order, an is yet to get out of the teens this tournament. Again, taking his unders run line looks like a good bet for Stars games. 

The Sixers take on the Strikers at the Adelaide Oval on 31st Dec

The Stars host the Renegades at the MCG on 2nd Jan

Renegades Vs Sixers Review

• Sixers chase down 172 to beat the Renegades, underlining how thin the Renegades bowling is, and how much I underestimated the Sixers.
• The Renegades batting was fairly solid, but slowed up towards the middle of the innings before Tom Beaton smashed 41 off 23 balls at the death to put on what looked like a defendable total. 
• Dwayne Bravo's player performance line was 35.5. For me this was far too low, given that he bats at five and bowls a full quota. His 45 from 29 balls covered this line with room to spare before he'd bowled a ball, and a similar line in the Renegades next game would be something I'd be piling into.
• Another play that should bear fruit over the course of the tournament is unders on Brad Haddin's run line. Haddin's been given free reign to free his arms from ball one by the Sixers, and should have been out on two of his three ball one's so far, nicking off today and surviving a plumb LBW in game one. With this approach against decent bowling attacks, Haddin will be doing very well to cover 25+ runs more often than not. 
• The Renegades bowling struggles here indicate that defending totals will be a real problem for them, and I'll be looking for a way to oppose them in similar situations going forwards, having been burned a little here backing them to defend. 

The Renegades take on the defending champions the Scorchers at the Emirates on Dec 30th.

The Sixers host the Stars at the SCG on 27th Dec.

Thunder Vs Sixers Review

• First thing to note from this game was how poor the Sixers were. Missing Starc, Smith, Lee, etc from last season, they struggled to compete against the Thunder, who have improved from last seasons poor showing. Opposing the Sixers going forward should be a good strategy. 
• In terms of players, Nick Maddinson for the Sixers looked very out of touch with the bat, and perhaps the pressure of captaincy is taking it's toll. I'll be looking to back under in his run line going forwards. I'll be taking a similar approach with Brad Haddin, who was plumb LBW first ball of the innings but not given, and stated afterwards that his job is to get the innings off to a flyer. Hopefully he'll carry on swinging from ball one, and will end up giving his wicket away cheaply.
• For the Thunder, playing unders on Kallis' run line might also be a goer, as he generally scores quite slowly nowadays. Andre Russell, or Dre-Russ as he apparently likes to be known, was not given much of a chance with the bat, facing just 5 balls, but picked up 3 wickets for 13 with the ball, bowling with some good pace and bounce. Most of Cricket Twitter were on his Player Performance Points at over 19.5 with Bet365, which was misquoted and adjusted to 40.5. He ended up beating this line easily, and if we see similar again in the next game I'll be steaming in on the overs. 

The Sixers play the Hurricanes on Sunday 20th Dec. at the SCG

The Thunder also play on Sunday, taking on the Stars at the MCG