Strikers Vs Sixers Review

• A century from Travis Head saw the Strikers chase down 177 with three balls to spare after the Sixers looked home and hosed, defending 51 from the last three overs.
• Sean Abbot was the weak link in the Sixers attach, conceding 27 from the 18th over including five boundaries. The rest of the Sixers attack was fairly passable, but Abbot served up hit-able filth to Head, who smashed it to all parts.
• This was after a similarly poor bowling display from the Strikers seamers, who couldn't contain the Sixers despite picking up regular wickets. 
• This game underlines why betting on these sides is difficult, as they're both very unpredictable, and can be anywhere between amazing and awful, often in the same game. Keep stakes small and green up wherever possible would be my advice for their upcoming games.

The Strikers host the Scorchers at the Adelaide Oval on 5th Jan

The Sixers visit the Scorchers at the WACA on 2nd Jan

Renegades Vs Scorchers Review

• A comprehensive win from the Scorchers, chasing down 171 without losing a wicket with an unbeaten 90 from an in-form Michael Klinger, and 76 from Shaun Marsh. 
• The Renegades top order fired here, with openers Aaron Finch and Chris Gayle scoring 72 and 41 respectively, in a very respectable 170. 
• Another poor showing from the Renegades bowlers, however, saw the Scorchers openers knock off the 171 required for the win within 19 overs. Michael Klinger is in a rich vein of form, and anyone who follows me on twitter would have seen I had backed his overs, which landed before the end of the power play. A bad day to not to be a spread-bettor... 
• The Scorchers have hit their straps after an opening-day defeat to the Heat, and look set to challenge for the title here. The Scorchers lost their opening game last year, but that was the only game they did lose, and a repeat of this in BBL05 would not be surprising here. 

The Renegades play the Stars at the MCG on 2nd Dec

The Scorchers host the Sixers at the WACA in the second game of the double-header on the 2nd

Heat Vs Hurricanes Review

• A high-scoring affair between two of the worst sides in the tournament, with the Hurricanes' 194 big enough to defend, despite a 50-ball hundred from Heat skipper Chris Lynn. 
• A solid all-round batting display from the Hurricanes, with all of their top five making 25 or more, and Dan Christian finishing off the innings with some immense power hitting, making 56 from 24 balls. 
• Failures from both the Heat's openers against a fairly mediocre bowling side, based on this I'll be looking to back unders on both of their run lines in future games, as Pierson looks out of his depth and Lendl Simmons is still on the plane. 

The Hurricanes take on the Thunder on 1st Jan at Hobart

The Heat play the Thunder on 3rd Jan at The Gabba

Thunder Vs Strikers Review

• A solid win for the Thunder, who have put last season's disappointment behind them, restricting the Strikers to just 117 and chasing down for the loss of 3 wickets in 16.5 overs. 
• Andre Russell was the star of the show yet again, taking two wickets and making 17 runs. Backing overs on his player performance points, when the line is around 40.5, is looking like a solid money-maker this season, as he will bowl 4 overs every game and contribute with the bat as well. Kallis seems to have hit his straps as well after a slow start, bowling well and steering the chase home. 
• The Strikers put in a poor performance today, with very few meaningful contributions with the bat, and poor management of the bowlers from captain Brad Hodge. Last seasons reliability seems to have gone, and inconsistency is the theme this year, making them a difficult side to bet on. 

The Thunder play the Hurricanes on 1st Jan at Hobart

The Strikers host the Sixers at the Adelaide Oval on Dec 31st

Sixers Vs Stars Review

• A solid win for the Stars, restricting the Sixers to 139 despite some middle-order resistance from Henriques and Silk, and chasing down with eight balls and five wickets to spare.
• Brad Haddin scored just 2, making backing his unders run line, something I've discussed in every Sixers review here, look more and more like an absolute banker this tournament. 
• Glenn Maxwell made 50 for the Stars in a return to form, accompanied by a 50 from Peter Hanscome and an unbeaten 24 from skipper David Hussey. With their middle-order firing like this, the Stars are looking strong, although I have my doubts about the quality of the Sixers, and will be watching their next game closely. 
• Luke Wright seems to be playing a similar role to Brad Haddin, going hard at the top of the order, an is yet to get out of the teens this tournament. Again, taking his unders run line looks like a good bet for Stars games. 

The Sixers take on the Strikers at the Adelaide Oval on 31st Dec

The Stars host the Renegades at the MCG on 2nd Jan

Scorchers Vs Heat Review

• An impressive performance from the Scorchers, restricting the Heat to just 117 before chasing them down for the loss of just one wicket. Following their initial defeat against the Strikers, this was a convincing win for a side I expect to challenge for the title. 
• Three wickets for Andrew Tye, and two for Behrendorff on return form injury in what was a terrible batting performance from the Heat, bar skipper Chris Lynn, who scored an unbeaten 75. Lynn's overs are worth looking at in every Heat innings, and on this performance backing him for top batsman every game should be a money-maker. 
• Michael Klinger carried his bat for 53 in the chase, and looks to be in his usual excellent form for the Scorchers. Backing his overs run line should prove profitable, particularly against weaker bowling attacks. 

The Scorchers visit Docklands stadium, Melbourne to face the Renegades on 30th Dec

The Heat take on the Hurricanes on the 29th at the Gabba

Renegades Vs Sixers Review

• Sixers chase down 172 to beat the Renegades, underlining how thin the Renegades bowling is, and how much I underestimated the Sixers.
• The Renegades batting was fairly solid, but slowed up towards the middle of the innings before Tom Beaton smashed 41 off 23 balls at the death to put on what looked like a defendable total. 
• Dwayne Bravo's player performance line was 35.5. For me this was far too low, given that he bats at five and bowls a full quota. His 45 from 29 balls covered this line with room to spare before he'd bowled a ball, and a similar line in the Renegades next game would be something I'd be piling into.
• Another play that should bear fruit over the course of the tournament is unders on Brad Haddin's run line. Haddin's been given free reign to free his arms from ball one by the Sixers, and should have been out on two of his three ball one's so far, nicking off today and surviving a plumb LBW in game one. With this approach against decent bowling attacks, Haddin will be doing very well to cover 25+ runs more often than not. 
• The Renegades bowling struggles here indicate that defending totals will be a real problem for them, and I'll be looking for a way to oppose them in similar situations going forwards, having been burned a little here backing them to defend. 

The Renegades take on the defending champions the Scorchers at the Emirates on Dec 30th.

The Sixers host the Stars at the SCG on 27th Dec.

Hurricanes Vs Heat Review

• A much-improved showing from the Hurricanes top order on a belter of a pitch saw them put on 184 for the loss of just three wickets, including 87 from 58 balls from skipper Tim Paine, and 40s from Sangakkara and Bailey.
• This firms up my belief that the Heat have comfortably the worst bowling attack in the BBL, and their batting is not much better, particularly at 3, 4 and 5. I'll be opposing them as much as possible going forwards, as they'll be lucky to win a game this year. Their next game against Perth could be carnage. 
• Hobart weren't really tested here, and I'm hoping that the market overestimates them in their upcoming games, as I think they're fairly poor as well, and will struggle to match the other sides in the competition. 

The Hurricanes play the Heat in their next game on 29th Dec at the Gabba

The Heat face a daunting trip to the WACA to face defending champs the Scorchers on Boxing day

Scorchers Vs Strikers Review

• A disappointing start to the campaign from the Scorchers, limping to 151 having been in a strong position and then failing to defend. Conversely, a strong showing from an underrated Strikers side. 
• As with the Stars, the market strongly overvalued Perth's chances throughout the game due to their reputation as excellent defenders of low totals. With Nathan Coulter-Nile dislocating his shoulder fielding here, and Jason Behrendorff out injured, this reputation is probably unjustified,  and going against it could prove a good money-maker, as it was today. Perth started last season in almost identical fashion, before putting together a string of wins, so look for them to bounce back against a weak Heat side next up.
• Like last season, Adelaide seem to be quietly a very strong side, and I'll be looking for opportunities to back them going forwards. 

The Scorchers take on the Heat on Boxing day at the WACA

The Strikers play Sydney Thunder on the 28th Dec at the Sydney Showground

Sixers Vs Hurricanes Review

• A much-improved Sixers performance after their disappointing turnout against the Thunder in match one, putting on a big score and defending comfortably, bowling the Hurricanes out for just 91.
• Most of the Sixers top order contributed here in what was a strong batting display led by Brad Haddin, although this was against what is probably the weakest bowling attack in the BBL.
• The only contribution from Hobart's batting was captain George Bailey's 62 from 45 balls, with 7 extras, the next highest score was 5. All in all a woeful display from the Hurricanes. Backing Bailey's overs run line could be a good earner this tournament.

The Sixers visit the Renegades at Docklands Stadium on the 23rd

The Hurricanes take on the Heat at Hobart with both sides looking to bounce back from poor starts on the 22nd

Thunder Vs Stars Review

• Usman Khawaja's century on return from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the conclusion of the New Zealand test series set up the Thunder for an impressive win. 
• The Stars were again overvalued by the market for the majority of the game, offering excellent trading opportunities. Luke Wright at the top of the order looked to knock every ball out of the park, which seems to be his role in the side. I'll be looking for opportunities to take unders on his run line when the better bowlers come on, as with Russell today. 
• Old-timers KP and Jacques Kallis proved they've still got it, KP smashing the ball to all parts, whilst calling it all live on the mic with the comms team, and Kallis defending 10 off the last over with the ball. Kallis scored just 9 with the bat, and looks to be a contender for going under on his run lines. 
• Dre-Russ smashed through his Player Performance line again, and backing overs on this every game should have a massive positive expectancy as long as the line stays around the 40.5 mark. 

The Thunder take on the Strikers next up at the Showgrounds Stadium

The Stars play the Sixers on Dec 27th at the SCG

Heat Vs Renegades Review

• After setting what should have been a total they could defend quite comfortably, the Heat ended up letting the Renegades off the hook after getting them under pressure during the chase. 
• Poor captaincy was an issue here, with Chris Lynn taking off Badree who had bowled two overs for just 7 and bringing on seamers, with the next three overs going for 10, 10 and 17.
• The Heat's batting looked strong, with Ben Cutting smashing vital runs down the order. With him coming in late on, his run line might be on the low side, and backing his overs should be a money-maker. 
• For all the Renegades big names, Cam White to me looked their strongest bat. Chris Gayle struggled with the short ball, and most sides should pepper him with some chin music on these bouncy Australian pitches, so he could struggle with that. With White's quality, he'll be another player I'll be looking to take overs on his run lines, or buy his runs. 
• Overall, the Heat look better than last season, but their bowling was quite poor, and choked under pressure. If they find themselves in a similar situation again, I'll certainly be opposing them, especially if Badree has bowled out.

Strikers Vs Stars Review

• Similarly to last years competition, the Stars were overrated by the market, and were too short for most of the game. No side had chased a score as big as Adelaide's at this ground, and if the Stars were defending I'd expect them to be priced around 1.4-1.5, where the Strikers were 1.6-1.7. Given this, and the fact their next opposition the Thunder were fairly underrated in their last game, taking on the Stars could be a good strategy. 
• As expected, the Strikers were fairly solid. Despite losing three early wickets, veteran Brad Hodge and Alex Ross shored up the middle order, putting on a 110 run partnership. Ross was in great touch, and getting on his run lines in the next game will be something I'll look at. 

The Stars play this Sunday, 20th Dec, taking on the Thunder at the MCG

The Strikers play defending champions the Scorchers at the WACA on the 21st Dec

Thunder Vs Sixers Review

• First thing to note from this game was how poor the Sixers were. Missing Starc, Smith, Lee, etc from last season, they struggled to compete against the Thunder, who have improved from last seasons poor showing. Opposing the Sixers going forward should be a good strategy. 
• In terms of players, Nick Maddinson for the Sixers looked very out of touch with the bat, and perhaps the pressure of captaincy is taking it's toll. I'll be looking to back under in his run line going forwards. I'll be taking a similar approach with Brad Haddin, who was plumb LBW first ball of the innings but not given, and stated afterwards that his job is to get the innings off to a flyer. Hopefully he'll carry on swinging from ball one, and will end up giving his wicket away cheaply.
• For the Thunder, playing unders on Kallis' run line might also be a goer, as he generally scores quite slowly nowadays. Andre Russell, or Dre-Russ as he apparently likes to be known, was not given much of a chance with the bat, facing just 5 balls, but picked up 3 wickets for 13 with the ball, bowling with some good pace and bounce. Most of Cricket Twitter were on his Player Performance Points at over 19.5 with Bet365, which was misquoted and adjusted to 40.5. He ended up beating this line easily, and if we see similar again in the next game I'll be steaming in on the overs. 

The Sixers play the Hurricanes on Sunday 20th Dec. at the SCG

The Thunder also play on Sunday, taking on the Stars at the MCG

BBL Preview

Big Bash League 2015-16 Preview

On 17th December, the fifth Big Bash League, Australia's T20 competition starts with a Sydney derby, pitting the Thunder against the Sixers. This is by far and away my favourite T20 league for a number of reasons; all games are televised, the sides are excellent and games tend to be competitive. The only slight downside is Damien Flemming on comms, but the mute button soon fixes that.

Looking ahead to this year's competition, I take a look at the squads for each of the franchises to give some context to the upcoming games, and also assess where I think there might be some value in the ante post markets. The FTE rating given to each side is an assessment of how I see their strength in batting, bowling, squad depth and ability to win games, and gives an indication of how I see each side relative to the others in the competition.

As with most T20 leagues, sides can very drastically from year to year, so I'd advise being cautious with staking in the early part of the tournament until you get more of a feel for how sides are performing this time around.

Adelaide Strikers

The Strikers had an excellent BBL04, winning six of their seven regular season games before being blown away by the Sixers in the first semi-final, bowled out for 94 chasing 181. For a side of relatively unknown players to have the best regular season record of the competition shows just how tough to beat the Strikers were last year, but the choke in the semi indicates that they didn't cope well with the pressure in the knockout game. The appointment of Jason Gillespie as coach may go some way to address this, but the Strikers squad is missing some key player this time around. From last season, the Strikers have lost Ryan ten Doeschate, Johan Botha, Shaun Tait and Adam Zampa, all experienced players and the side looks weaker for these losses. Kieran Pollard's knee injury sustained during the South African Ram Slam T20 competition has deprived the Strikers of his services in BBL05, with their two overseas players now being Mahela Jayawardene and Adil Rasheed, who is likely to miss some of the tournament due to international commitments with England's white ball sides. Overall, I'm expecting the Strikers to be slightly weaker than last season, as I feel they have lost some key players. I won't be opposing them just on this, however, and will be watching their early games closely to see if this is the case. 

FTE Rating: 6/10


Brisbane Heat 

Last seasons whipping-boys, the Brisbane Heat will be hoping that a much-changed squad will put in a stronger showing this time around. The addition of Alex Doolan and Lendl Simmons should strengthen their batting, newly appointed captain Chris Lynn expected to go big after a strong showing in the 50-over Matador Cup, and Ben Cutting is capable of smashing quick runs down the order. Where the Heat look weak, however, is their bowling unit, which looks the weakest in the competition despite the addition of Samuel Badree. Given this, I can't see them improving much from last season, and will be looking to oppose them first up against the Renegades, and as much as possible in their later games if this goes to plan. 

FTE Rating: 4/10


Hobart Hurricanes 

The Hurricanes, having won just three of their eight games last season, put in a disappointing performance given the strength of their squad. This time around, their squad, with the additions of Dan Christian, Shaun Tait and Kumar Sangakkara, looks a little stronger than last year, with a solid batting line-up and what should be a competitive bowling unit. The three additions previously mentioned should add plenty of experience, and with George Bailey and Darren Sammy returning, the Hurricanes will hope to draw on this experience to close out games. Going into the early games, I'm neutral on the Hurricanes, and will be watching their opener against the Sixers on Saturday closely before forming an opinion.

FTE Rating: 5.5/10


Melbourne Renegades

Another side who failed to live up to expectation last season, the Renegades have bolstered their squad with arguably the two biggest overseas names in the competition in West Indians Chris Gayle and Dwayne Bravo, and will be looking for a significant improvement on BBL04. Power certainly won't be an issue for the Renegades batting line-up, with big-hitters Gayle and Bravo joining captain Aaron Finch. The capture of Xavier Doherty from Hobart could prove to be key, as the left arm spinner has performed very well for the Tasmanian side, with 24 career Big Bash wickets, and should support the Renegades impressive seam attack well. Overall, the Renegades have a very strong squad, and, assuming they perform to their capabilities, could be in with a shout of making the semi-finals.

FTE Rating: 6.5/10


Melbourne Stars

The Stars, with their plethora of big-names, were an excellent side to oppose during their early BBL04 games, as despite their undoubted quality, they were incapable winning  until dismissing the Renegades for just 57 kick-started their season. They eventually made the Semi-finals, losing to the champions Scorchers. Losing Cam White and Jackson Bird in the off-season would have been a blow, but in Evan Glubis, Adam Zampa and Ben Hilfenhaus they have some more than capable replacements. For my money, the Stars have one of the strongest sides in the competition, and if they can address the inability to win games they suffered from last year, and finally get through a semi-final, they have an excellent chance of taking home the title.

FTE Rating: 7.5/10


Perth Scorchers

Defending BBL champions, the Scorchers come into this years tournament having made very few changes to their playing squad, letting Yasir Arafat and Hilton Cartwright go, and bringing in David Willey. International commitments for a number of key players could hinder the Scorchers this time around, and with injury concerns to opening bowler Jason Behrendorff and Simon Mackin, the Scorchers will have to rely on the depth of their squad this time around. That being said, this side have quality in spades, with very few weak links throughout the squad, and look good to continue where they left of last season and challenge for the title this time around. 

FTE Rating: 8.5/10


Sydney Sixers

Having reached the final of BBL04, the Sixers, like the Scorchers, have made very few changes to their side this time around. The additions of Jackson Bird and Johan Botha reinforce a squad that will loose three key players to the Australian international team, and will be without gun bowler Mitchell Starc due to injury. Despite this, the Sixers still look strong and will be looking to emulate last seasons form, and I expect them to reach the semi-finals here. With the absentees, however, they are left with a relatively small squad, and should they suffer from further injuries could struggle to find quality replacements.

FTE Rating: 6.5/10


Sydney Thunder

After a disappointing showing in BBL04, winning just two of their games, the Thunder return with a much-changed squad looking to give a better account of themselves. Despite the changes, the Thunder squad does still look weak to me, particularly in their batting. In Mike Hussey and Jacques Kallis they have two greats of the game, but also two guys who are both pushing 40 and who's best years are behind them. Andre Russell is an excellent signing, and if he continues his Ram Slam form should provide plenty of middle-order firepower, provided he is given enough of a chance, and will also reinforce what is a relatively good bowling line-up. Gurinder Sandhu had an excellent BBL04, and was subsequently picked for the Australian ODI side. If he bowls to his capabilities he should walk the Thunder top bowler market, although the only price currently (2.88 at Stan James) is a little short, and should get bigger once other bookies price this up. 

FTE Rating: 5/10

Outright Tips

Perth Scorchers at 6 with Sporting Bet

As you can see from the write-up above, I make Perth the strongest side here, and will therefore be backing them in the outright market. The Stars and the Renegades both look strong, but there are question marks over both sides for me, and so I'm backing Perth to retain their crown. 

Looking at the top bat/bowler markets, I've gone for players who will play most, if not all of the games, as there are international schedules for the latter part of the tournament which will see some of the bigger names leave. 

Top Tournament Batsman

Kumar Sangakkara at 15 (widely available) Sangakkara will be opening for the Hurricanes, and comes into the tournament in excellent form. 15s is a decent price and well worth taking. 

David Willey at 101 with TitanBet Willey will be opening for the Scorchers, and so should see plenty of action. His 100 from 40 against Sussex in the English summer showed what he's capable of, and 101 is just completely wrong. Snap it up before it disappears. 

Jordan Silk at 151 with Betfair This is a bit of a long shot, but I really like Silk as a batsman, and he scored quickly coming in down the order last season. With the Sixers having quite a thin squad he could be given more of a chance this time around, and at 150/1 is worth a poke. 

Top Tournament Bowler

Andrew Tye at 26 (widely available) With injury concerns around other Scorchers bowlers, Tye should get plenty of overs under his belt, and has had a decent 50-over summer so far. He was fourth in the wicket takers list for BBL04, so looks good value at  25/1.

Sean Abbot at 31 with Paddy Power Abbot bowls with blistering pace, guile and plenty of variations, and will bowl his full quota in every game. 30/1 from Paddys is far too big here, with the 25/1 elsewhere more accurate.

Johan Botha at 51 with Stan James Another long shot, but Botha impressed last year, picking up wickets and keeping it tight in terms of runs. I think this is worth a small go, as the price seems a bit on the big side. 

Dolphins Vs Titans - RamSlam T20 Challenge Final Preview

Unlimited Titans Vs Sunfoil Dolphins 

SuperSport Park, Centurion 12th December 2015

Following the Dolphins victory over the Cobras in Wednesday's play-off game, the two best sides in the competition face off this Saturday at SuperSport Park. The Titans won 8 of their 10 group games, losing to the Dolphins their first game, coming within 6 run of chasing 179, and to the Knights in their dead-rubber final game. The Dolphins started the competition strongly, inspired by Kevin Pietersen, who scored 364 runs at an average of 121.33 in his first five games, but dropped off after Pietersen's departure, losing three of their last four games before Pietersen's return for the play-off. 

The play-off game was a strong performance from the Dolphins, putting on 99 for the first wicket, with meaningful contributions from David Miller and KP, putting on a total of 178. Some good hitting from the Cobras put pressure on the Dolphins bowling, but 19 year-old Andile Phehlukwayo and T20 gun Dwayne Bravo soaked it up, defending a run a ball off the last 3 overs to secure the win.

The Titans have justified their status as favourites for the competition with consistent performances throughout, with internationals De Kock, Morris, Morkle, Weise and Behardien showing their class against relatively average sides. 

The challenge that the Dolphins pose, however, should be more of a test for the Titans, who are best priced at 1.77 favourites, and the Dolphins priced at 2.2. This seems fair to me, and I'll not be looking to get involved in this market before the game. 

One standout price is in the Dolphins Top Bat market, with Ladbrokes laying 3.75 on KP. Given his form so far this competition, and his love of the limelight, this price is definitely worth taking. Another price I like is the 2.1 that Paddy Power are offering on the Dolphins having the highest opening partnership. Given the 99 they put on the other night this looks value to me, and I don't rate Henry Davids who'll likely be opening with Quentin De Kock for the Titans. 

Looking at the ground stats for Centurion, we can see that there is a slight bias towards chasing, with sides batting second winning 55.1% of the 49 completed 20-over games. There have also been some high scores chased, with 224 being the highest, followed by 189 and 176. Straight away this shows that games here are never over at the half-way mark regardless of the score, and this could present some nice opportunities to cheaply lay the side batting first making a big score. The data for powerplays show that sides keeping wickets in hand in the first six overs tend to put on big scores, with the mean scores when no wickets are lost in the first six overs is 187.2, and 170.5 when one wicket is lost. This can give an edge looking at the run lines, with overs being the play if the side batting first don't loose wickets in the first six. 

In summary, I think this will be an excellent game to round off the tournament, with some world-class players on show for the two best teams in the competition. I think the Titans have a stronger side, and should edge the game, but the 1.77 on them to win does not offer much value. Instead I'll be backing KP for top Dolphins batsman at 3.75, and the Dolphins to have the highest first wicket partnership at odds-against. In-play, I'll be looking at my ground stats to identify opportunities, but the slight advantage to chasing, the big scores chased here and the high scores when wickets are preserved in the first innings powerplay are a great start. 

Good luck, I hope you've enjoyed this tournament as much as I have, and have found the ground stats useful. 

Australia Vs New Zealand 1st Test Preview

Brisbane  5th-9th November 2015

Australia return to the test arena following their humbling in England over the summer and the cancellation of their tour to Bangladesh in October with the visit of New Zealand, the first test between the tow nations since 2011.

Prior to the first test, the war of words between the two camps has been raging, with David Warner accusing New Zealand captain Brendan McCullum of being immature, and underlining Australia's ultra-agressive attitude, both on and off the field. 

This series with be Steve Smith's first as test captain, and Australia's first since the batch of post-ashes retirements. This means that there are a lot of new faces in the Australian XI, with Joe Burns and Usman Khawaja coming into the top order, who have played two and nine tests respectively so far. With Smith confirmed to be batting at four, Adam Voges the only other recognised batsman in the squad, and Mitch Marsh as an all-rounder, this line-up looks very thin to me. The bowling unit, as expected, is much more experienced, with Johnson and Starc leading the line and Nathan Lyon as the spin option. 

New Zealand, on the other hand, boast a lot of experience across the team, having essentially the same squad that toured England earlier this summer. The new ball partnership of Tim Southee and Trent Boult are one of the best in the world right now, and the with Williamson, Taylor and McCullam in the middle-order, the batting also looks very strong. 

Looking at just the teams, you would certainly think that Australia look vulnerable here, particularly in the batting department. With well-matched bowling attacks, this match may well be decided on who is able to get runs on the board, and an untested Australian side is difficult to trust in this regard, especially with such a thin-looking batting line-up. 

Historically, however, Australia's record at the Gabba is formidable, having not lost a test since the West Indies visited in 1988. This is reflected in the current odds, with the market pricing Australia as 1.74 favourites, with New Zealand at 4.3 and the draw at 5s. With both sides known for their positive cricket, a lay of the draw looks a banker here from the off. I'm also very tempted to take the 4.3 about New Zealand here, as I really think Australia are as weak as they have been for years, and can see this price coming in a lot shorter. Given the historical record of Australia at the Gabba, I won't be looking to hold onto this for too long.

I also like the look of Kane Williamson at 4s for top New Zealand bat, as he's proved himself to be one of the worlds best in all conditions. Steve Smith is a little short for top Australian Batsman at 3.25, but is difficult to see where else runs will come from in this side, so might be worth a poke. 

Overall, though, this test should prove an excellent insight into what's to come from these two sides during this series, and one I'm very much looking forward to. 

Pakistan Vs England - 3rd Test Preview

Sharjah  1 - 5th November 2015

Another excellent Test in this series ended on Monday with England unable to resist the Pakistan bowling line-up despite a heroic effort from Adil Rashid and Mark Wood, which saw the Pakistan price drift out from 1.04 to 1.8 before Zulfiqar found Wood's outside edge. The third and final contest looks set to be an interesting test, with both sides ringing the changes and England having to win to square the series. 

There have been seven Tests played at Sharjah, with one draw, and three of the six victories being by an innings. Notably, these innings victories was all by the visiting side, with Australia winning twice in 2002 and New Zealand winning last year having put on 690 in their first innings. Last years Test was noticeable for the volume of wickets taken by spinners, with Mark Craig picking up a ten-for in the match, and Yasir Shah taking four in New Zealand's innings. We can expect a similar pitch here, and so looking to spinners for top bowlers is probably a smart move. Yasir Shah can be backed at 2.75 for Pakistan, and Adil Rashid at 5s for England. Rashid can be dutched with Moeen Ali for 2.73, which seems to offer some value. 

As mentioned above, both sides will be changed from the last test, with Imran Kahn out for Pakistan and Azhar Ali likely to be available for selection. For the visitors, Mark Wood will be rested due to his persistent ankle problem, and Jos Buttler will also miss out. Cook was struggling with a slight injury in the last Test, but looks set to be fit here, but there is speculation over the inclusion of an out-of-form Ian Bell. England's batting line-up, then, is very difficult to predict. Moeen will play, but could be moved into the middle order to replace Buttler with Alex Hales coming in to open with Cook. Hales is touted as the likely opener for the upcoming South Africa tour, and so it would make sense to blood him here. Alternatively, we could see James Taylor, who has had an excellent season in all forms of the game, coming into the line-up somewhere in the middle order for Buttler. A third option would be to include Samit Patel to offer a third spin option, but I think this is unlikely bar any major injuries. 

Overall, England's batting line will see an inexperienced batsman being brought in, and given how fragile the middle order has been so far this tour I can't see this changing on what is likely to be the most difficult pitch of the series. With that in mind, Joe Root for England top bat at 3.75 offers some value. 

Looking at the Match Odds market, it looks like any pre-match value that was around has long since gone, with the draw drifting out from 3.3 to 3.8. Although I'll be looking got oppose this during the Test, both previous games have seen the draw trade much shorter, and could be a good back-to-lay play. Keeping Pakistan on side is definitely recommended, although if they trade very short during the first couple of days they might be a lay, as we've had three Tests in three weeks, and they are an old squad. England have impressed me so far this tour, and could have got close to winning both previous Tests, with light denying them the win in the first, and a shocking morning's batting costing them the second. All three results could happen here, and I won't be taking a position pre-match.

I will be tweeting anything I see as value during the match, so keep and eye on that, and good luck in the markets. 

Pakistan Vs England - 2nd Test Preview

Dubai 22-26th October 2015 

 After what developed into an excellent Test match between these two sides at Abu Dhabi, despite the lifeless pitch, we now move on to Dubai, where pitches have in the past proved to be much more lively. If not huge entertaining for the most part, the first Test has given an indication as to how the two sides will approach the series.

Pakistan, as brilliant as they can be, are also capable of some terrific batting collapses. Given that they had been in the field for two and a half days before their second innings, the subsequent capitulation could be forgiven, but is certainly worth noting from a trading point of view, particularly with Younis and Misbah both being the wrong side of 35. England were a big surprise for me, and I was impressed with their attitude in the first innings, particularly from Cook, applying themselves diligently to build a first innings lead. This is in stark contrast to the touring sides in the UAE last winter, both of whom struggled when batting second.

 With Pakistan set to welcome Yasir Shah back into their squad, I would expect him to provide the cutting edge that their bowling attack lacked in the previous Test, and a more helpful surface should provide their seamers with more to work with. This England batting line up have never faced a quality leg spinner, and so Shah should ask some serious questions of them. England, on the other hand, are set to be unchanged, with Ben Stokes back in training after an injury scare. Adil Rasheed's five-for in the second innings will boost his confidence after what was a bit of a flogging in the first, but he could struggle against a fresher Pakistan attack who will be less willing to throw their wickets away than they were on the fifth day in Abu Dhabi.

Overall then, we have two fairly evenly matched sides playing on a ground that has produced just two draws since 2010. In terms of taking a position before a ball is bowled, similarly to the first Test, a lay of the draw at 3.5 looks the pick of the Match Odds, with little value about Pakistan at 2.42 and England at 3.25. As with the last Test, we will hopefully see the draw trading a lot lower in play, and I will be looking to oppose at short prices as the Test progresses. The toss will be important here, as ever in the subcontinent, as the side batting first will have the best of the conditions both with the bat early on and with the ball in the fourth innings. With this in mind, backing Shoaib Malik at 5.5 for top Pakistan batsman should they win the toss looks nice. I liked the look of Imran Kahn with the ball as well, and if it starts to reverse I think he could cause some serious problems for the England batsman, so the 6s on him to be top Pakistan bowler looks good. A quick look at the England top batsman market, and Moeen Ali at 7.5 looks very generous from Paddy Power, as does the 6.5 on Ian Bell. Both are struggling for form slightly, but will not get a better chance to rectify that in batting friendly conditions, and both are excellent player of spin, which they will likely face plenty of.

 All in all, this Test should be excellent to trade, with both side capable of the sublime and the ridiculous, and conditions looking to provide more of a contest between bat and ball that previously, with this in mind I'll be looking to be active in the Match Odds market, and will try to tweet anything I see as value during the match.

Pakistan Vs England - 1st Test Preview

Abu Dhabi 14-19th October 2015

With Australia's tour of Bangladesh due to start last week cancelled due to security fears, the post-Ashes Test cricket drought comes to an end on Tuesday with the first day of England's visit to the UAE.

England come into this tour after an impressive Ashes victory, but in facing Pakistan in unfamiliar conditions face a very different challenge to that posed by Australia in England.

The hosts comprehensively beat a much better Australian side to the one England recently dispatched, and drew the three test series with New Zealand, losing just one test over the whole of their home series. This loss was the final test of the summer, and a very jaded Pakistan lost by an innings, having played five tests between the 22nd October and 26th November, and so fatigue was a big contribution to this performance. Incidentally, Brendan McCullum and Kane Williamson put on 297 for the second wicket in New Zealand's 690 in this test. The Pakistan squad named for the England series is much the same as for these tours, and so I expect Pakistan to be very strong. Their batting is exceptionally good in these conditions, as is their bowling; in Rahat Ali they have a wicket-taking new ball bowler, and Yasir Shah is one of the best legspinners in the world, and very much at home in the UAE, picking up 12 wickets for 17.25 against Australia.

As has generally been the case with England sides over the last two years or so, there is a big question mark over who will open the batting with Alastair Cook, with Moeen Ali looking to have made the cut, despite Trevor Bayliss' comment that it's "not ideal". This is hardly a vote of confidence in Moeen, and speaks volumes about the England coach's opinion of Alex Hales, particularly since neither of them got into double figures opening in the latest warm-up match. There are also selection issues around Jos Buttler's place in the side, as his Test batting form is poor, and Jonny Bairstow, his most likely replacement as wicket keeper, has been scoring runs for fun this season. Whatever the final XI, England's batting looks shaky to me, and I can see the unfamiliar conditions and Pakistan's quality spin bowling causing serious problems. England's spin bowling is a concern as well, with Adil Rasheed set to play his first test and Moeen likely to provide the second spin option. Rasheed is untested at this level, and if Pakistan are able to blunt him, Moeen is far from a specialist and unlikely, in my opinion, to trouble the Pakistan top order, one of the world's best batting units against spin.

In terms of betting, I can't look past Pakistan here. There is a huge trend for the home side winning tests at the moment, and an even bigger one for a result, and so this seems like the best play. Current prices on the machine are 2.32 to back Pakistan, 3.35 England and 3.6 the draw, and at these prices I'd be a bit wary of getting involved, as I think there will be much better opportunities during the match, especially if Pakistan win the toss and bat first. The two series last year showed just how quickly matches in the UAE can change direction, and a general trend was the draw traded very low in each of them before the visiting side lost wickets quickly, and ultimately capitulated. The ideal situation for me here would be for Pakistan to bat first and bat long, well into the second or even third day, for the draw to trade well below evens before England bat. If this occurs, I'll look to back Pakistan at the end of their innings, and also to be a big draw layer, scaling out liability as England lose wickets. Should England bat first, I can still see the draw getting short during the first innings, but think that it's much more likely in this situation, particularly if England bat past tea on day two. All in all, I really like Pakistan here, and will be looking to develop a position on them as the match develops. Keep an eye on twitter, as I will try to tweet when I think there's some value to be had.

Trading T20 Games

With the T20 Blast Finals Day coming up on Saturday, I though I'd share how I approach trading T20 games, and give you an idea of how to use the stats on the ground that I've published on the blog.

Fail to Prepare, Prepare to Fail

Firstly, knowing what games are coming up and where, I will do my research. I keep a database  of T20 games where major tournaments are played, and this is my first port of call. I've published my stats for Edgbaston ahead of Saturday's games so you can see what I look at. As an example, from these stats you can see that sides batting second are at a slight disadvantage, with just 44% of chases being successful, and that this drops to just 21% where sides are chasing over 150. We can also see that first innings scores of 180+ are relatively rare, having occurred in one of every five games so far, on average.

With preparation on the ground done, I'll now look at the sides, looking at the relative strengths of batting line-ups and bowling attacks, who can put on big total, and who can defend lower totals, who likes chasing, who does well when batting first, etc.

I'll put all of this down on a notepad, and have this in front of me during games, as T20 can be fast and furious, and having everything written down means I can focus on the market when I need to, and not have to flail around looking at stats.

Watching and Waiting

During the game, with all the action going on it can be tempting to jump into positions early on. It took me a while to get out of this habit, but I'm glad I did. How I approach trading the games now is to look at the runs lines during the first innings, and not enter any positions until after the six over power-play. Looking at the stats page again, you'll see a table at the bottom of the page which gives average totals when a certain number of wickets have been lost in the power-play, and this is where I'll start. I'll also pay very close attention to how the pitch is playing, if it's coming onto the bat nicely, if cutters are sticking in the pitch, indicating batting will be difficult against spinners later on, how quick the outfield is, etc, and try to assess how easy batting will be. I'll then look to take on small positions in the runs lines market, and if I see what I think is some good value, I might take a larger position, but generally I'll keep things tight here.

During the second innings I'll look at the match odds, using all the information on past games and from the first innings to assess who I think is more likely to win the game. T20 can be so unpredictable, so I'll be very active in terms of limiting liability where I can. This unpredictability can also provide good low-risk/high-reward opportunities, such as batting sides going well, and trading at low prices, were you know chasing sides struggle, offering a good opportunity to lay them.

Thinking Longer-term

This might be an obvious point to many, but it is worth reiterating. You will not win every trade, and you will be wrong at times. Giving yourself the best opportunity to be right is all you can do, and at the end of the day we are dealing with uncertainty. Recognising this, and focussing on becoming consistent in the longer-term, and staying in control and sticking to plans for individual games, will be a big factor in successful trading.

T20 Finals Day - Ground Stats for Edgbaston

The stats here are from my T20 database for Edgbaston, which has data for all 75 completed, full 20-over, games played at the ground since 2003 until the start of finals day. This will update after every game had been played.

If there's anything you want clarifying, or would like to see here, get in touch on twitter.



You can download this as a jpeg image here. NB This will not automatically update.

First Royal London One Day Cup Quarter Final - 25th August 2015

Nottinghamshire Vs Durham at Trent Bridge

Looking at Durham's record in this competition, it's striking how low the bar for qualification to the quarter finals is, since they've won just half of their games, and there are two sides in Hampshire and Kent with even worse records who made it through. Notts on the other hand have a very impressive record, winning five of their eight games, and only losing one, a game in which  Kent chased down 336 to win thanks to a Sam Billings century. These contrasting records are reflected in the market, with the hosts currently trading at 1.51 and Durham at 2.94 on the Betfair Exchange. Durham, RLODC defending champions, have won three of their four away games, and beat Notts comprehensively in the semi-finals of this tournament last season through 164 from Ben Stokes. They may be a touch of value here, but I won't be taking any positions prior to the start of the match.

Notts are a side whose games I love to trade, especially when they're batting. They have a hugely talented batting line-up, and one which bats all the way down, but one which also loses early wickets a lot, as discussed here, often losing three wickets early on. Steve Mullany bats at six, token second-rate Aussie (obligatory in white ball cricket, especially the IPL) Dan Christian at seven, and veteran wicket keeper Chris Read bats at eight, meaning Notts have a hugely strong lower order. This lower order is one which has won games and set big totals having seen early wickets go down on numerous occasions, and this is what I'll be looking to trade today, backing the home side should these early wickets go down, especially if they are chasing.

This also means that there is often plenty of value in backing these guys in the top batsmen market, and the standouts to me here are Brendan Taylor at 8.5, Mullaney at 17, and Read at a massive 34 with Ladbrokes. Riki Wessels at 5s also looks a touch of value given the form he has been in in this competition recently.

There is some rain forecast for this afternoon in Nottingham, so I'd imagine both sides will be looking to field if they win the toss, anticipating that Duckworth-Lewis will come into play. Bear this in mind if you're trading this game, and good luck.

Sri Lanka Vs India – Second Test Preview

Colombo 20 - 25th August 2015

After a quite incredible Test in Galle, India's tour of Sri Lanka moves north to the P Sara Oval in Colombo. The first test consisted of India skittling the hosts for 183, having got them 60/5, and then putting on 375 in their first innings. This lead of almost 200 runs looked safe enough, and with Sri Lanka 5/3 in their second innings, an innings victory for the hosts looked likely, and the market priced them at sub-1.10. A counter-attacking 162* from Dinesh Chandimal with lower-order support from Thirimanne and Mubarak got SL to 367, a lead of 175 runs. Sri Lanka's spinners Herath and Kaushal them promptly cleaned up the Indian batting line up for 112, picking up 7-48 and 3-47 respectively.

This result clarified two things for me, firstly that this Sri Lankan side has plenty of guts, something that I had doubted in my preview of the first Test due to the lack of experience in the squad, and secondly that that 'Indian batsmen are good player of spin' cliche can finally be put to bed as a myth.

There has, however, been little talk of changes to be made by either camp, although Stuart Binny was flown in for the Indians between the Tests and opening bat Shikhar Dhawan has left the Indian touring party with a broken hand. This will be Kumar Sangakkara's final Test match, and backing him to be top Sri Lankan bat at 4s with Corals purely for sentimental reasons is something I'm looking at. Other standouts in this market look to be Chandimal at 8s and skipper Angelo Matthews at 6s.

In the match odds market, the hosts are currently 2.86/2.88, India 3.35/3.4 and the draw 2.80/2.82. As ever with Tests at the moment, opposing the draw looks an excellent play here, the batting of both sides has proved itself to be fragile, and both camps have been emphasising the fact that they'll be chasing the win.

Looking at previous Tests on this ground, the last draw here was in 2003, and this is the only one in the last 13 Tests here since September 1993, so history is on our side. There are some thunderstorms forecast, but this was the case for the last Test in Galle, and we didn't get any interruptions there, and these sides only need three days and one session to wrap up the four innings in that game.

I'm not convinced to back either of these sides here, Sri Lanka are still an inexperienced side, despite a strong performance last time out, and India are equally likely to come roaring back at their hosts as they are to collapse in a heap. The lay of the draw at 2.82, therefore, is the best play in my opinion.

The Ashes - Fifth Test Preview

The Oval 20 - 25th August 2015

The fifth and final Test of what has been an incredible series so far kicks off at the Oval this Thursday as a dead rubber, since England wrapped up the series last time out at Trent Bridge.

I very much doubt, however, that either side will be approaching this match as an irrelevance, with the England camp talking up the importance of winning 4-1, which would be the first time ever England have won four Tests in a home Ashes series, and Australia looking to prove a point following a hugely disappointing tour so far.

Both sides are in transitory stages, with England in the final stages of rebuilding after the previous away Ashes series, and Australia preparing to lose captain, and final remaining member of the great Aussie side of the 2000s, Michael Clarke. Along with Clarke, opening batsman Chris Rodgers has confirmed that this will be his last Test, veteran seamer Ryan Harris withdrew from the squad, and there are question marks over the future of several other players, Watson, Voges, Fawad and Haddin in particular. Steve Smith has, rightly, been named as successor to Clarke's captaincy, but will not be in charge for this Test, leaving a side that looks to me to be very much betwixt-and-between, waiting for this tour to be over to move on.

This aspect of the Australian squad is making me lean towards backing England again here, with the price currently at 2.5 on the Betfair Exchange. Given the two biggest trends in test cricket at the moment, the lack of draws and the struggles that away sides are having, this seems to be the best play for this match, closely followed by a lay of the draw. I'm planning to effectively take both, but to skew my green from the draw lay onto England, with some green on the visitors, and all liability on the draw. This doesn't give as good value on England, but it does cover me should the Aussies put up a fight. I think we can fairly safely discount the draw here, the weather seems set fair, with perhaps some showers on day one, and the way these two sides are playing, we could lose two full days and still get a result. The oval pitch should provide a bit less seam movement, but it seems England have realised that they're actually quite good in these conditions, and have started ordering pitches to suit, so we may well see another here.

In terms of other markets, there's not a great deal I can see. Rodgers as top Australian bat at 5s might be worth a small play given how he's really the only Aussie bat to show any fight this series. It looks like Anderson will miss out again, and with this being a meaningless test, backing Finn or Wood for top English bowler might be a good play. As discussed in my Fourth Test Preview, Broad has a tendency to turn up when it matters, and as this is a dead rubber, may just go through the motions here. Dutching, betting on both, Finn and Wood gives odds of 2.5 should either finish as top bowler, which looks ok value to me.

Good luck in the markets, and if you have any questions please get in touch on twitter or leave a comment below.

Worcestershire Vs Hampshire - T20 Blast - Third Quarter Final

New Road - 14th August 2015

After two very good quarter finals, the T20Blast rolls into New Road, home of surprise qualifiers Worcestershire. The two previous games have seen comprehensive wins for the two underdogs, with Northants dispatching Sussex thanks to some miserly bowling and David Willey's incredible innings of 100 from 40 balls, and Birmingham resisting Essex. Birmingham are defending champions, and have a hugely talented and experienced squad, but started odds-against last night, with Essex at 1.75. This is a really good example of the market undervaluing a side, and is something that occurred at finals day last year with the same Birmingham side, and so is worth keeping an eye on come this years finals day on 29th August.

Turning to tonight's game, hosts Worcestershire are aiming to rid themselves of the dubious honour of being one on the two counties never to have made finals day, and come into this having had a very strong season so far, finishing second in the North group. The market is currently favouring the visitors, with Hampshire trading at 1.78, and the hosts at 2.26. Looking at the teams, that seems about fair to me, as Hampshire have an excellent batting line up, and some talented bowlers.

As we have seen over the last two nights, however, falling into the trap of thinking big names = easy win in the Blast is a recipe for giving away cash, and there is often value in the underdogs.

I think the pitch tonight will play a huge part in determining who wins this game, and if we see a track that grips and turns, where slower balls stop in the pitch and make it difficult to play shots, Worcestershire should give Hants a good game. They will be aiming to pick up early wickets, since in James Vince, averaging 48.5 this year, and Michael Carberry Hants have one of the strongest opening partnership in the Blast. Any deck that keeps these two in check, and provides assistance for Saeed Ajmal, who has been Worcs stand-out bowler this year, picking up 21 wickets at 14.76, should give Worcestershire a decent chance.

To wrap up then, I think there is slight value with Worcestershire at 2.26 here, but I'll not be taking this before we start. Instead I'll be looking at how the pitch is playing, and looking for an opportunity to lay Hampshire at a fairly low price. Should we get this type of pitch, I'll be keeping a close eye on how the Hampshire attack adapt to this, and if they start to bowl to the conditions, I'll be looking to get out of any position on Worcs fairly quickly.

Sri Lanka Vs India - First Test Preview

Galle - 12th - 16th August 2015

The first of this three test series sees these two subcontinental sides contest a five-day match for the first time since 2010, a game in which VVS Laxman and Virender Sehwag scored centuries for India, who ran out 5-wicket winners. In the meantime, these sides have played 25 ODIs, and changed dramatically in terms of personnel.

The two sides have both struggled to rebuild recently, following the retirement of numerous legendary players, and the respective squads for this tour reflect that. India's certainly looks more settled, with a core that's been together for a couple of years or so now. Sri Lanka's side, on the other hand, looks very inexperienced, and with the legend that is Kumar Sangakkara playing his last test series, the hosts could struggle should India find themselves in a strong position and they need to dig deep to fight back. Sangakkara himself has an excellent record at Galle, scoring 1876 runs at 53.60 in 22 matches, and, although the 3.75 on him to be top Sri Lankan batsman seems a little skinny in terms of value, this is his penultimate test, and with the inexperience around him, he should be close to top of the pile. Backing Kumar Sangakkara for top SL batsman at 3.75 is, therefore, something I'll have a little interest in, but small stakes here are advised.

On the balance of sides, then, India seem to have the upper hand, but one huge factor putting me off backing them is their dismal away record since over the last 25 tests, winning just two and losing 15. Given the struggles India have had away from home, a widespread problem among test sides at the moment, a straight back of them is, to me, not a comfortable bet to take, and with Sri Lanka's new look squad, a back of them is, if anything, less comfortable.

Turning to the ground itself, of the 25 tests played here, Sri Lanka have won 13, lost 6 and drawn 6, and since 2008 we have only seen two draws. Being in Sri Lanka, there may be an issue with rain affecting play, but we have had a similar forecast for the last few tests at Galle, and we have had results in these. The draw is currently trading at 1.85 on the Betfair Exchange, and there is certainly no value in backing it at that price. With the relatively few draws at this venue, and the make up of the two squads here, I definitely think that a result in this match is the most likely outcome, and therefore I'm taking a lay of the draw at 1.85.

Royal London One Day Cup - 6th August 2015

Aside from the excitement of the first Ashes test this morning, we also have a couple of matches in the English domestic 50-over competition that look to offer excellent trading opportunities.

Durham - Leicestershire 

Leicestershire are possibly the worst county cricket side in the country, with a track record of LLLLLWLW in their last eight games in this competition, with the two wins coming when they were batting second in rain affected games, chasing reduced Duckworth Lewis adjusted scores. They have lost 4 of their 5 games this season, with the fifth being rained off, despite getting themselves into strong positions. Whilst Durham have not had the greatest season, winning 2 and losing 3 with one rained off, given Leics terrible record, it is well looking for opportunities to oppose them. Durham are currently trading at 1.72, which seems a tad short, but should Leics trade odds-on, I'll be looking to lay them. I probably won't be holding this for too long, however, and trimming my liability as the odds lengthen.

Middlesex - Nottinghamshire

Notts have won four of their five so far in the RLODC, batting second on each occasion. In each of these innings, they have had a shaky start, losing top order wickets early on, and relying on their lower-middle order to make the majority of the runs. They have lost their first three wickets in their last three victories for 53, 56, 114 (having been 0/1). Middlesex have been struggling for consistency this season, winning 2 and losing 3 with one rained off, and Notts are rightly 1.6X favourites today. Middlesex have won the toss and put Notts in, however, so looking to back Notts on the loss of any early wickets could be a profitable strategy.

Trading on Betting Exchanges

Since the launch of Betfair's betting exchange in 2000, online gamblers have been able to trade the outcome of sporting events, that is, to place more than one bet on the same market at different odds, either to ensure that some profit is made, or to cut losses early when things aren't going to plan. Cricket, especially test cricket, is an excellent sport to trade, as there are often dramatic swings in matches which can provide excellent opportunities for traders to capitalise on.

To provide a step-by-step guide on how to use a betting exchange, and to hopefully give you another string to your betting bow, I'll talk through the example of the Ashes 2015 Series Winner market below. Going into the first test in Cardiff, before a ball had been bowled in the series, the market looked something like this:

England: 5.25 (19%)

Australia: 1.46 (68.5%)

Draw: 9.2 (10.9%)

I've included the implied probability for each result here, as understanding what the odds represent is crucial to successful trading. Essentially the market was pricing the chance of Australia winning the series at just under 70%, and I felt that this was an inaccurate representation of the true probability of Australia winning three of the five tests, and, therefore, that laying Australia at these odds offered value.

Why did I think that Australia's chances of winning the series were less than 68.5%? Well this was more of a gut feeling type bet rather than anything based on quantifying statistics. Although England's form had been very poor over the last year or so, the sacking of coach Peter Moores and the appointment of Trevor Bayliss seemed to me to bring a freedom to England's cricket. The drawn series against New Zealand earlier in the year, the first since Moores' sacking, saw England play some excellent cricket, and I felt that any replication of this against the Australians would make life very difficult for the visitors. The fact that it's a home series for England also indicated to me that the Australian's wouldn't have the easy ride the market was pricing in, and I made their chances of winning the series closer to 50-55%, and so layed the 1.46 on offer.

My intuitions on the standard of cricket England would play were proved right during the first test at Cardiff, and, although my bet was nicely positioned at the end of this game, I was keen to remove my risk from the market, as I was happy that my initial assessment was correct, and I felt that Australia under-performed in this test, and were likely to up their game in the remainder of the series. I therefore backed them at 2.54, a price I felt represented fair value at the time, leaving me with a level profit across all three outcomes.

Of course, given that there were four tests left in the series, if I had different risk preferences there were other options I could have taken. I could have backed Australia with all of the profit for my lay bet, meaning that I would have had no liability in the market, and essentially a free bet on Australia, or I could have done the opposite, covering my liability on Australia leaving profit on England and the draw, making this a free lay of the visitors. Should the result have gone the way of Australia, and England had reverted to the type of cricket we saw during the previous Ashes series, I would have been able to back Australia, at shorter odds that I layed them, which would have meaning I would have taken a loss, but a smaller one than if I had just let my bet run until Australia had won three tests and the series. Having this control over your bets is why so many gamblers prefer to trade on exchanges, rather than with traditional bookmakers.

The charts below show the price movement of this market up to the start of the fourth test, and, as you can see, there have been some dramatic swings in the pricing over the three previous test matches.



There are two very important concepts mentioned above, namely understanding the odds and identifying value, which it is essential to understand as a gambler, and I have gone into a lot more detail on these here. I hope the example of my trading on the 2015 Ashes Winner market gives a good illustration of how to use these concepts to generate profit from sports betting. If you've got any questions, leave a comment below or get in touch on twitter.